2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,140 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 160 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,078/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$54
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$226
Net cashflow
$352/mo
Annual
$4,220/yr
Cap rate
11.26%
Cash-on-cash
17.73%
DSCR
1.79
1% rule
1.27%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#315 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Henry County (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #60 of 139 in TN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Lakewood Elementary (math 38% / reading 30%, grade F, #351 of 952 statewide, top 37%, 505 students, 0% FRL); Lakewood Middle School (math 34% / reading 25%, grade F, #107 of 333 statewide, top 33%, 249 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Henry County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $10k; list at $85k implies a 750% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29