10104 Fernwood Ln

Breinigsville, PA 18031

$149,850B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,482/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$305
• HOA: −$620
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $250/mo
• Annual: $2,995/yr
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.73%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $41,958

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,251 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Parkland SD (suburban): math 59% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.9% in Breinigsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.