3712 El Paso Ave

Fort McKinley, OH 45406

$1B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1907 · SingleFamily · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,290/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$437
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $444/mo
• Annual: $5,325/yr
• Cap rate: 12.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.83%
• DSCR: 2.02
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $23,321

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $576 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 124935.3% of price; built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.