3712 El Paso Ave · Fort McKinley, OH 45406

$1

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1907 7,349 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Court Ordered Sale by Private Selling Officer. Auction ends on April 22, 2026. All information we have on the property is included. We have no additional information, property condition is unknown. NO SHOWINGS, NO trespassing for any reason. Information is thought to be correct but not guaranteed. 10% Buyer Premium added to the high bid, $5,000 deposit is due within 24 hours of bidding end.

Key facts

• 7,349 sq ft lot
• Built 1907
• Listed 79 days

🔨 Auction listing. The $1 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $83,178 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $445 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $576 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 124767.1% of price; built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.90%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,178
• List price: $1
• Delta: -100.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4081 Redonda Ln	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,545 (-3%)	11mo	$127,500	$83	67
4237 Nevada Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,450 (-9%)	4mo	$127,000	$88	52
4235 Merryfield Ave	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,448 (-10%)	5mo	$189,000	$131	52
2550 N Gettysburg Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,462 (-9%)	13mo	$105,000	$72	52
3593 Saint James Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,700 (+6%)	4mo	$164,700	$97	51
2413 Archwood Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,377 (-14%)	1mo	$100,100	$73	47
4343 Free Pike	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,522 (-5%)	11mo	$50,900	$33	47
3581 Ark Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,376 (-14%)	7mo	$103,000	$75	44
2247 Esmeralda Ave	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,406 (-12%)	2mo	$68,000	$48	43
3314 Arlene Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,494 (-7%)	10mo	$174,500	$117	41
2448 Archwood Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,377 (-14%)	13mo	$109,000	$79	39
4227 Williamson Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,392 (-13%)	14mo	$135,000	$97	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $14,891
• Equity at exit: $12,402

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $49,660
• Equity at exit: $7,192

Cash invested: $23,290 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45406

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 156

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$436
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$104 /mo · $1,248/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $728

Max offer price $83,178

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $502	-5% $473	+0% $445	+5% $416	+10% $387
Rent	-10% $343	-5% $394	+0% $445	+5% $495	+10% $546
Rate	-1.0pp $486	-0.5pp $466	base $445	+0.5pp $423	+1.0pp $401

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,795
• Closing costs: $2,495
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4246 Redonda Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	44d	1	0.48mi
4916 Copeland Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1515	$1,125	$0.74	11d	1	0.77mi
3031 Garvin Rd Unit C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1269	$1,150	$0.91	44d	1	0.83mi
4446 Waymire Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	21d	1	0.87mi
4003 Whitestone Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,275	$1.16	44d	1	0.91mi
3668 Castano Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,600	$1.00	3d	1	1.14mi
2141 Philadelphia Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1736	$1,395	$0.80	44d	1	1.21mi
110 Cromwell Pl Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,100	$1.05	3d	1	1.47mi
519 Heather Dr Unit 1C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,095	$1.00	3d	1	1.48mi
1019 Cherry Dr Dayton, OH	4.0	1.0	1057	$1,125	$1.06	44d	1	1.48mi
3668 Karwin Dr Unit 3672 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1500	$995	$0.66	24d	1	1.49mi
3672 Karwin Dr Unit 3672 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1500	$995	$0.66	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    listed $1 Active 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    Court Ordered Sale by Private Selling Officer. Auction ends on April 22, 2026. All information we have on the property is included. We have no additional information, property condition is unknown. NO SHOWINGS, NO trespassing for any reason. Information is thought to be correct but not guaranteed. 10% Buyer Premium added to the high bid, $5,000 deposit is due within 24 hours of bidding end.

17. 2006-09-21
    soldstatus $54,900
18. 1984-07-25
    soldstatus $18,368
19. 1984-07-25
    soldstatus $18,368

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,659
• − Property taxes: −$1,248
• − Insurance: −$416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$2,420
• Taxable income: $4,264
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $4,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Fort McKinley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort McKinley, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,991
• Household income: $41,796
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1504.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 16% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.75%
• Current HPI: 197.1302
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+198.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $1 Cincy MLS
• 2006-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records
• 1984-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $18,368 Public Records
• 1984-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $18,368 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,236 · -56.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.