1043-1053 Fell St

San Francisco, CA 94117

$3,950,000A-

90 bd · None ba · 7,669 sqft · Built 1905 · MultiFamily · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $62,728/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,714
• Tax + insurance: −$6,583
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$13,173
• Net cashflow: $22,258/mo
• Annual: $267,091/yr
• Cap rate: 13.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.15%
• DSCR: 2.07
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $1,106,000

Investor read

• This is a 9 × 10-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $3.95M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22k ($267k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($63k rent vs $3.95M).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($3.71M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.71M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $394k of equity ($27k loan paydown + $366k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.2%/yr); 71 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2.24M; list at $3.95M implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $1.11M cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$632k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $62,728/mo this rent would consume 451% of the median local household income ($167k/yr) (locally 1811% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?