5253b Forest Hill Rd

Jackson, MS 39272

$199,999C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,598 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,876/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $100/mo
• Annual: $1,198/yr
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (6.2% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Hinds County School District (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #70 of 130 in MS (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof is estimated to be 25+ years old and was put on in the early 1990s.