5253b Forest Hill Rd · Jackson, MS 39272

$199,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,598 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1993 Average condition $77/sqft · 16% below area Est $239k · 16% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property being sold as-is Roof: Older; it is estimated to be 25+ years old. The owner believes it was put on in the early 1990s (it was 5 to 6 years old when they moved in). HVAC: New A/C unit installed roughly 4 to 7 years ago. Paint: Recently painted the area from the front back to the washroom in the bedroom. Kitchen: Very large with all white cabinets, a full-length pantry, and a half-pantry/spice rack with drawers. Flooring is rolled-out vinyl. It features a newer dishwasher, a new stove (1 to 3 years old), and a range top (8 to 9 years old). The owner cleans the appliances immediately after use, so there is no buildup. The carpet is original from when the owners moved in 28 years ago.

Key facts

• New stove
• Full length pantry
• Newer dishwasher

Tags

• VERY LARGE KITCHEN
• FULL LENGTH PANTRY
• NEWER DISHWASHER
• NEW STOVE
• RANGE TOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Hinds County School District (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #70 of 130 in MS (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,590 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,775
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -16.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5227 Forest Hill Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,600 (+0%)	21mo	$230,000	$88	77
5123 Forest Hill Rd	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,838 (+9%)	10mo	$255,000	$90	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-26,023
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,360
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39272

• Home prices YoY: -9.8%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,876 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $169	+0% $100	+5% $31	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $26	+0% $100	+5% $174	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $151	base $100	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $-5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,999 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,999 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $199,999 709-char remark

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    Property being sold as-is Roof: Older; it is estimated to be 25+ years old. The owner believes it was put on in the early 1990s (it was 5 to 6 years old when they moved in). HVAC: New A/C unit installed roughly 4 to 7 years ago. Paint: Recently painted the area from the front back to the washroom in the bedroom. Kitchen: Very large with all white cabinets, a full-length pantry, and a half-pantry/spice rack with drawers. Flooring is rolled-out vinyl. It features a newer dishwasher, a new stove (1 to 3 years old), and a range top (8 to 9 years old). The owner cleans the appliances immediately after use, so there is no buildup. The carpet is original from when the owners moved in 28 years ago.

16. 2026-04-22
    listed $205,000 Active 709-char remark

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    Property being sold as-is Roof: Older; it is estimated to be 25+ years old. The owner believes it was put on in the early 1990s (it was 5 to 6 years old when they moved in). HVAC: New A/C unit installed roughly 4 to 7 years ago. Paint: Recently painted the area from the front back to the washroom in the bedroom. Kitchen: Very large with all white cabinets, a full-length pantry, and a half-pantry/spice rack with drawers. Flooring is rolled-out vinyl. It features a newer dishwasher, a new stove (1 to 3 years old), and a range top (8 to 9 years old). The owner cleans the appliances immediately after use, so there is no buildup. The carpet is original from when the owners moved in 28 years ago.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,801
• − Management: −$1,801
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,112
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$507
• After-tax cash flow: $1,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in average condition with a need for a new roof and some maintenance. A new roof and landscaping improvements would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof is estimated to be 25+ years old and was put on in the early 1990s.

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — A new roof would significantly increase the home's value and make it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof is estimated to be 25+ years old and was put on in the early 1990s.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof — A new roof would significantly increase the home's value and make it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hinds County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801860
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,335
• Composite: 24.02/100
• National rank: #7771
• State rank: #70 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• City population: 140,204
• Population (ZIP): 14,161

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 22% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.11%
• Current HPI: 184.3215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $199,999 MLSU
• 2026-04-22 Listed $205,000 MLSU