8536 Kern Canyon Rd #2

East Niles, CA 93306

$65,500C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,708/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$343
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$795
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $102/mo
• Annual: $1,224/yr
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 2.61%
• Cash to close: $18,340

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $66k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $66k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $453 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Douglas K. Fletcher Elementary (770 students, 59% FRL); Paul L. Cato Middle (629 students, 57% FRL); Foothill High (reading 77%, 2,045 students, 90% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.