8536 Kern Canyon Rd #2 · East Niles, CA 93306

$65,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1991 5,000 sqft lot $62/sqft · 16% below area Est $78k · 16% under $795/mo HOA · 47% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand New Major Updates - Just add finishing touches! Why buy a fixer-upper when you can start with the big stuff already finished? This 3-bed, 2-bath home in Kern Canyon Estates features a brand-new A/C system, new energy-efficient windows, and brand-new appliances (Washer, Dryer, & Fridge included!). The owners just installed fresh flooring in key areas, leaving just a few minor repairs and personal touches for you to build instant equity. Perfectly positioned on a large corner lot right next to guest parking. Enjoy the clubhouse, pool, and pickleball courts while you put the final polish on your new home!

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1991

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Kern Canyon Estates HOA; HOA fee $795 per month; Community clubhouse, gym/exercise room, pool, sauna, and park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home zoning; Leased space; Pre-owned; Owner-occupied
• Construction: Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Accessory unit on property; Community pool; Rear automatic sprinklers; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Formal living room; Great room; Split wing floor plan; Range/Oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Central A/C; Central heat

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $66k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $66k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Douglas K. Fletcher Elementary (770 students, 59% FRL); Paul L. Cato Middle (629 students, 57% FRL); Foothill High (reading 77%, 2,045 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $453 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,535 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,792
• List price: $65,500
• Delta: -15.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #133	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-2%)	5mo	$45,000	$43	79
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #37	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	2mo	$28,000	$29	69
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #28	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+8%)	24mo	$55,000	$48	58
9220 Eastwind Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (+13%)	9mo	$110,000	$92	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-4,899
• Equity at exit: $9,766

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $950
• Equity at exit: $5,663

Cash invested: $18,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$343
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$795
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,579

Max offer price $65,500

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $125	+0% $102	+5% $79	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $35	+0% $102	+5% $169	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $119	base $102	+0.5pp $85	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,375
• Closing costs: $1,965
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Fortier St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	4d	1	0.39mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,005	$1.14	4d	1	0.98mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,067	$1.01	45d	1	0.98mi
7000 College Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	849	$1,480	$1.74	20d	1	0.99mi
7000 College Ave Unit 035 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	849	$1,525	$1.80	16d	1	1.00mi
7000 College Ave Apt 168 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	957	$1,655	$1.73	20d	1	1.00mi
8817 Butternut Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	4d	1	1.16mi
9802 Krista Vineyard Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	4d	1	1.17mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Unit 152 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,610	$1.55	4d	1	1.40mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Apt 127 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$1,535	$1.57	45d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $795 · $9,540/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $65,500 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,500 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,500 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,500 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,500 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,500 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,500 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,500 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,500 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,500 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,500 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,500 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,500 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,500 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,500 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $69,800 Active 620-char remark
17. 2026-03-07
    price $69,900
18. 2026-01-28
    listed $74,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,669
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − HOA: −$9,540
• − Depreciation: −$1,905
• Taxable income: $797
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$191
• After-tax cash flow: $1,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $65,500 GEMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $69,800 GEMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $69,900 GEMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $74,900 GEMLS

Property tax history

-6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $123 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.