407 N Elm St

Gardner, IL 60424

$89,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 886 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,659/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $775/mo
• Annual: $9,305/yr
• Cap rate: 16.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.34%
• DSCR: 2.66
• 1% rule: 1.86%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $775 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#511 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gardner S Wilmington Twp Hsd 73 (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #567 of 919 in IL (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gardner-South Wilmington Twp H S (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #187 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 147 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 84 units permitted in Grundy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grundy County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.