407 N Elm St · Gardner, IL 60424

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 886 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 1900 9,583 sqft lot ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Solid opportunity on a deep lot! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath ranch offers a functional layout with a spacious living room with brick fireplace, eat in kitchen, and separate laundry room. Bedrooms are compact but usable, while the oversized lot provides plenty of outdoor space. The 30x26 detached 2 car garage is a standout feature, offering a large workshop area and separate half bath. Home includes a circuit breaker, electrical, and central air. Property needs some love and is priced accordingly, offering a great opportunity to update and build equity.

Key facts

• Deep lot
• Brick fireplace
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• DEEP LOT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• OVERSIZED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property not currently leased; Not rebuilt or rehabilitated; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 195 (less than 0.25 acre)
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (garage owned), 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One story; Fee simple ownership; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Over 100 years old; Brick and cedar construction; Asphalt roof; Brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; School bus access; Interstate access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with eating area / table space
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level); Master bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet in living room
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Four total rooms; Masonry fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry (5 x 8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $775 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#511 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gardner S Wilmington Twp Hsd 73 (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #567 of 919 in IL (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gardner-South Wilmington Twp H S (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #187 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 147 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 84 units permitted in Grundy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grundy County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.34%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,490
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 N Cedar St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+13%)	13mo	$214,900	$215	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $97,835
• Equity at exit: $80,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.00×
• Total profit: $249,223
• Equity at exit: $172,907

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60424

• Home prices YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,659 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $380/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $775

Break-even live

Break-even rent $678

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $826	-5% $801	+0% $775	+5% $750	+10% $725
Rent	-10% $644	-5% $710	+0% $775	+5% $841	+10% $907
Rate	-1.0pp $820	-0.5pp $798	base $775	+0.5pp $752	+1.0pp $729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $89,000 Active
3. 2026-02-26
   soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $380 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$820/yr (+$68/mo · 216.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$380
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $8,327
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,998
• After-tax cash flow: $7,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gardner S Wilmington Twp Hsd 73
• NCES district ID: 1716260
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,618
• Composite: 26.19/100
• National rank: #12712
• State rank: #567 of 919 in IL

Livability — Gardner

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #511
• US rank: #10602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gardner, IL
• Population (ZIP): 2,170

Population outlook (Grundy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,716 people
• By 2030: 50,218 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 48,599 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 46,212 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 40,033 · -21.1%
• By 2100: 32,966 · -35.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grundy

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.6) · D 34.5% · R 64.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -29.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.6 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+23.6 2012: R+9.0 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.89%
• Current HPI: 280.24
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-34.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $89,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $380 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.