5111 Ayers Pl SE

Washington, DC 20019

$1,295,000B

182 bd · None ba · 10,920 sqft · Built 1947 · MultiFamily · Active · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $21,687/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,791
• Tax + insurance: −$1,421
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,554
• Net cashflow: $8,921/mo
• Annual: $107,050/yr
• Cap rate: 14.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.71%
• DSCR: 2.32
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $362,600

Investor read

• This is a 14 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.29M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($107k/yr) — positive. Per door: $637/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $1.29M).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.14M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.14M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Capitol Hill Montessori School At Logan (424 students, 0% FRL); Kelly Miller Ms (351 students, 0% FRL); H.D. Woodson Hs (543 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $730k; list at $1.29M implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $363k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?