5111 Ayers Pl SE · Washington, DC 20019

$1,295,000

182 bd · None ba · 10,920 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1947 8,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 14 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

* * * Great solid brick building few blocks from Ft Benning Metro and Maryland Line. * * * . Seller has the right to accept or reject all offers. * * * PRICE JUST REDUCED!!!!!!!!!Multiple offers. Please submit Best and final offer by this coming Sunday !!!!!!

Key facts

• 8,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1947
• Listed 154 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Estimated above-grade finished area
• Financial info: Fee simple ownership; Ground rent paid annually; Land assessed value reported; Improvement assessed value reported

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: Detached property; 4 stories
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Above-grade additional structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: 13 one-bedroom units; 1 single-room unit
• Heating & cooling: Hot water and radiant heat; Oil-fired heating; Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: Full basement with daylight and partial exposures; Estimated living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 14 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.29M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($107k/yr) — positive. Per door: $637/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $1.29M).
• Recommended offer: $1.14M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Capitol Hill Montessori School At Logan (424 students, 0% FRL); Kelly Miller Ms (351 students, 0% FRL); H.D. Woodson Hs (543 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $363k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.14M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $730k; list at $1.29M implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,139,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.71%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $427,017
• Equity at exit: $193,089

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $1,403,653
• Equity at exit: $111,968

Cash invested: $362,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State District of Columbia: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Washington: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43

Rent Stabilization Program; TOPA gives tenants right of first refusal.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20019

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 69.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,687 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,791
• Tax from tax record: −$826 /mo · $9,908/yr
• Insurance: −$540
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,554
• Net cashflow: $8,921

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,395

Max offer price $1,295,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,654	-5% $9,287	+0% $8,921	+5% $8,554	+10% $8,188
Rent	-10% $7,208	-5% $8,064	+0% $8,921	+5% $9,777	+10% $10,634
Rate	-1.0pp $9,573	-0.5pp $9,250	base $8,921	+0.5pp $8,585	+1.0pp $8,244

14-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 14× units	1	1	$21,686
Total (14 units)			$21,687

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $323,750
• Closing costs: $38,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,295,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,295,000 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,295,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,295,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,295,000 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-01-18
    listed $1,295,000 Active
16. 2012-05-09
    soldstatus $730,000
17. 2012-04-30
    soldstatus $730,000 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    * * * Great solid brick building few blocks from Ft Benning Metro and Maryland Line. * * * . Seller has the right to accept or reject all offers. * * * PRICE JUST REDUCED!!!!!!!!!Multiple offers. Please submit Best and final offer by this coming Sunday !!!!!!

18. 2012-04-30
    soldstatus $730,000 Sold 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    * * * Great solid brick building few blocks from Ft Benning Metro and Maryland Line. * * * . Seller has the right to accept or reject all offers. * * * PRICE JUST REDUCED!!!!!!!!!Multiple offers. Please submit Best and final offer by this coming Sunday !!!!!!

19. 2012-03-07
    status Contract 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    * * * Great solid brick building few blocks from Ft Benning Metro and Maryland Line. * * * . Seller has the right to accept or reject all offers. * * * PRICE JUST REDUCED!!!!!!!!!Multiple offers. Please submit Best and final offer by this coming Sunday !!!!!!

20. 2012-03-05
    historical 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    * * * Great solid brick building few blocks from Ft Benning Metro and Maryland Line. * * * . Seller has the right to accept or reject all offers. * * * PRICE JUST REDUCED!!!!!!!!!Multiple offers. Please submit Best and final offer by this coming Sunday !!!!!!

21. 2012-02-24
    status Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    * * * Great solid brick building few blocks from Ft Benning Metro and Maryland Line. * * * . Seller has the right to accept or reject all offers. * * * PRICE JUST REDUCED!!!!!!!!!Multiple offers. Please submit Best and final offer by this coming Sunday !!!!!!

22. 2012-02-08
    historical Contingent (Kick Out) 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    * * * Great solid brick building few blocks from Ft Benning Metro and Maryland Line. * * * . Seller has the right to accept or reject all offers. * * * PRICE JUST REDUCED!!!!!!!!!Multiple offers. Please submit Best and final offer by this coming Sunday !!!!!!

23. 2012-01-27
    status Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    * * * Great solid brick building few blocks from Ft Benning Metro and Maryland Line. * * * . Seller has the right to accept or reject all offers. * * * PRICE JUST REDUCED!!!!!!!!!Multiple offers. Please submit Best and final offer by this coming Sunday !!!!!!

24. 2012-01-26
    historical Temporarily Off-Market 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    * * * Great solid brick building few blocks from Ft Benning Metro and Maryland Line. * * * . Seller has the right to accept or reject all offers. * * * PRICE JUST REDUCED!!!!!!!!!Multiple offers. Please submit Best and final offer by this coming Sunday !!!!!!

25. 2011-11-23
    price $749,000 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    * * * Great solid brick building few blocks from Ft Benning Metro and Maryland Line. * * * . Seller has the right to accept or reject all offers. * * * PRICE JUST REDUCED!!!!!!!!!Multiple offers. Please submit Best and final offer by this coming Sunday !!!!!!

26. 2011-10-27
    listed $799,000 Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    * * * Great solid brick building few blocks from Ft Benning Metro and Maryland Line. * * * . Seller has the right to accept or reject all offers. * * * PRICE JUST REDUCED!!!!!!!!!Multiple offers. Please submit Best and final offer by this coming Sunday !!!!!!

27. 2011-10-27
    listed $749,000 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    * * * Great solid brick building few blocks from Ft Benning Metro and Maryland Line. * * * . Seller has the right to accept or reject all offers. * * * PRICE JUST REDUCED!!!!!!!!!Multiple offers. Please submit Best and final offer by this coming Sunday !!!!!!

28. 2009-04-20
    listed
29. 2009-04-20
    historical
30. 2007-08-24
    historical
31. 2007-05-10
    listed
32. 2005-10-12
    soldstatus $750,000
33. 2005-09-15
    soldstatus $750,000
34. 2005-04-03
    historical
35. 2005-03-29
    listed $700,000
36. 1989-10-27
    soldstatus $155,000
37. 1986-12-24
    soldstatus $4,871,550

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DC · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,908 · $826/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,908 · $826/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $260,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,540
• − Property taxes: −$9,908
• − Insurance: −$7,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,820
• − Management: −$20,820
• − Depreciation: −$37,673
• Taxable income: $91,343
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$21,922
• After-tax cash flow: $85,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: District Of Columbia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1100030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,671
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9606
• State rank: #8 of 32 in DC

Livability — Washington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #5327

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, DC
• County: District of Columbia · 671,873 people
• City population: 671,873
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 63,380
• Household income: $58,296
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5115.0

Population outlook (District of Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 821,926 people
• By 2030: 899,517 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 1,061,162 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 1,231,493 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 1,603,312 · +95.1%
• By 2100: 1,847,141 · +124.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Dominican 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · District of Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+86.1) · D 91.2% · R 5.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 85.9pp · 2024: 86.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+86.1 2020: D+86.8 2016: D+88.7 2012: D+84.2 2008: D+85.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -416.91%
• Current HPI: 326.4481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in DC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$153B
▸Life Sciences / Industrials	1	$25B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$8B

Price history

-73.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-18 Listed $1,295,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $730,000 Public Records
• 2012-04-30 Sold (MLS) $730,000 MRIS
• 2012-04-30 Sold (MLS) $730,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-03-07 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-03-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-02-24 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-02-08 Contingent — MRIS
• 2012-01-27 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-01-26 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-11-23 Price Changed $749,000 MRIS
• 2011-10-27 Listed $799,000 MRIS
• 2011-10-27 Listed $749,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-04-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-04-20 Listed — MRIS
• 2007-08-24 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-05-10 Listed — MRIS
• 2005-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $750,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-15 Sold (MLS) $750,000 MRIS
• 2005-04-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-03-29 Listed $700,000 MRIS
• 1989-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 1986-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $4,871,550 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,908 · -12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.