3820 Stoney Creek Rd

Carlisle, KY 40311

$299,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 2021 · Other · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,351/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-793/mo
• Annual: $-9,522/yr
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.34%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-793 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (46.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (54.9% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (54.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#349 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nicholas County (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #132 of 165 in KY (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Nicholas County Elementary School (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #477 of 676 statewide, top 71%, 664 students, 71% FRL); Nicholas County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 455 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Nicholas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nicholas County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $300k implies a 1342% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.