3820 Stoney Creek Rd · Carlisle, KY 40311

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Other · 42 Days on market

Built 2021 6.41 ac lot $149/sqft · 14% below area Est $349k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6.41 acre lot
• Built 2021
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 6.409 acres (assessor)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Sewer: Lagoon system
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Total building area approximately 2,016
• Exterior features: Public water; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-793 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (46.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (54.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (54.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#349 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nicholas County (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #132 of 165 in KY (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Nicholas County Elementary School (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #477 of 676 statewide, top 71%, 664 students, 71% FRL); Nicholas County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 455 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Nicholas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nicholas County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $300k implies a 1342% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $135,148 (54.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.34%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 18.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,441
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -14.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $112,687
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $371,368
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40311

• Home prices YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 18.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,351 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,962/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,356

Max offer price $159,729

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $299,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $325,000 Active
17. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus $20,800
18. 2006-01-18
    soldstatus $11,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,962 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,579 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$617/yr (+$51/mo · 31.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,962
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$15,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,687
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nicholas County
• NCES district ID: 2104470
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $39,178
• Composite: 22.65/100
• National rank: #8056
• State rank: #132 of 165 in KY

Livability — Carlisle

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #16526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,676

Population outlook (Nicholas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,953 people
• By 2030: 6,815 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 6,489 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 6,119 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 5,449 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 4,901 · -29.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nicholas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+24.6 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 282.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+2420.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $299,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $325,000 ImagineMLS
• 2021-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $20,800 Public Records
• 2006-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $11,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,962 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.