9826 Nucla St

Commerce City, CO 80022

$499,000D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,837 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,651/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax + insurance: −$669
• HOA: −$45
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$767
• Net cashflow: $-446/mo
• Annual: $-5,355/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $139,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-446 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $420k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (26.8% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($454k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $365k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#137 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• School District 27J (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 86 in CO (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Commerce City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?