201 Baldwin Rowe Cir

Lynn Haven, FL 32405

$255,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,654 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Active · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,013/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$425
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-372/mo
• Annual: $-4,467/yr
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.26%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-372 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (21.1% below list).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hiland Park Elementary School (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 643 students, 56% FRL); Mowat Middle School (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 868 students, 49% FRL); A. Crawford Mosley High School (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,901 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 480 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.