201 Baldwin Rowe Cir · Lynn Haven, FL 32405

$255,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,654 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Built 2017 Good condition 1-car garage $154/sqft · 22% below area Est $328k · 22% under $200/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 201 Baldwin Rowe! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome offers stylish updates, functional living space, and a comfortable, move-in-ready lifestyle. From the moment you walk in, you'll appreciate the thoughtful upgrades and inviting atmosphere throughout. The kitchen features updated granite countertops, newer appliances, and plenty of cabinet and counter space, making meal prep and entertaining easy. The downstairs half bath has been tastefully renovated, and the home also features all-new laminate flooring and newly installed carpeting for a fresh, updated feel.

Key facts

• Newer appliances
• Swimming pool
• Top-rated schools

Tags

• UPDATED GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE SCREENED-IN PORCH
• GATED BALDWIN ROWE COMMUNITY
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hiland Park Elementary School (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 643 students, 56% FRL); Mowat Middle School (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 868 students, 49% FRL); A. Crawford Mosley High School (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,901 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 442 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,053 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.16%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,392
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -22.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1507 Baldwin Rowe Cir	0.10mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,562 (-6%)	3mo	$227,000	$145	78
3135 Wood Valley Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,642 (-1%)	19mo	$285,500	$174	72
112 Fox Ridge Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+5%)	12mo	$303,000	$174	70
116 Fox Ridge Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,799 (+9%)	14mo	$399,000	$222	63
3167 Wood Valley Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,856 (+12%)	6mo	$350,000	$189	61
3184 Wood Valley Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-7%)	13mo	$320,000	$208	60
201 Lakeridge Drive Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,622 (-2%)	17mo	$310,000	$191	51
2821 Fairmont Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,603 (-3%)	13mo	$295,000	$184	47
106 Harrison Pl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,775 (+7%)	10mo	$330,000	$186	46
3466 Cherry Ridge Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+8%)	9mo	$333,000	$186	43
2932 Palmetto Ridge Way	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,885 (+14%)	11mo	$289,000	$153	34
204 Harrison Pl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,858 (+12%)	18mo	$370,000	$199	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-60,708
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-87,494
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.7 mo (37%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,000 ($225/sqft)
• Median days on market: 106 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -11.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,484

Max offer price $219,182

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-71	-5% $-159	+0% $-248	+5% $-336	+10% $-424
Rent	-10% $-419	-5% $-333	+0% $-248	+5% $-162	+10% $-76
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-183	base $-248	+0.5pp $-314	+1.0pp $-381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Baldwin Rowe Cir Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,350	$1.47	70d	1	0.01mi
3126 Wood Valley Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1922	$2,800	$1.46	70d	1	0.25mi
2950 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1199	$1,725	$1.44	70d	6	0.26mi
2870 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1230	$1,770	$1.44	70d	1	0.36mi
3502 Jenks Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1176	$1,850	$1.57	62d	24	0.82mi
618 Gabriel St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,150	$1.10	70d	1	1.03mi
300 W 23rd Pl Unit 1491599P Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1313	$2,592	$1.97	70d	1	1.12mi
2002 Wilson Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,260	$2.31	62d	25	1.26mi
1125 Bradley Cir Lynn Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,850	$1.55	62d	1	1.30mi
3900 Arbor Trace Dr Lynn Haven, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1520	$1,854	$1.22	62d	34	1.31mi
2305 Minnesota Ave Lynn Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,950	$1.15	62d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building has dumpster
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (gated community)Community clubhouse and poolAssociation provides security gate

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garageAdditional parkingElectric gate and gated entryPaved parking
• Security: Gated communitySecurity gate
• Utilities: Electricity availablePublic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence zoningSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding exteriorComposition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch (screened)In-ground community poolPaved lotHas viewWaterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktopElectric ovenElectric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second level)Additional bedrooms on second level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioningCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Interior stepsSmoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $255,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $255,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $255,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $255,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $255,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $255,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $265,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $265,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $265,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $265,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $265,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $265,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $265,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $265,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $265,000 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $265,000 Active 49 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $265,000 Active 48 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $265,000 Active 47 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $265,000 Active 46 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $265,000 Active 45 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $265,000 Active 44 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 43 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 42 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $265,000 Active 41 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 40 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 39 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 38 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 37 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 36 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 35 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $265,000 Active 32 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $265,000 Active 31 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    pricedays on market $265,000 Active 29 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $267,000 Active 27 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $267,000 Active 26 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $267,000 Active 24 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $267,000 Active 23 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $267,000 Active 22 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $267,000 Active 21 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $267,000 Active 20 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $267,000 Active 18 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $267,000 Active 17 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $267,000 Active 15 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $267,000 Active 14 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $267,000 Active 13 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $267,000 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,825
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$7,323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,758
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,270–$24,810 screening

This move-in-ready townhome offers stylish updates and a comfortable lifestyle, with good condition and fresh paint enhancing its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Modern fans improve comfort and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hiland Park Elementary School F FL #1,560/2,144 Nat'l #20,819/41,679 Middle Mowat Middle School C FL #254/571 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High A. Crawford Mosley High School C- FL #148/667 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynn Haven, FL
• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 21,459
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building has dumpster
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (gated community)Community clubhouse and poolAssociation provides security gate

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garageAdditional parkingElectric gate and gated entryPaved parking
• Security: Gated communitySecurity gate
• Utilities: Electricity availablePublic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence zoningSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding exteriorComposition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch (screened)In-ground community poolPaved lotHas viewWaterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktopElectric ovenElectric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second level)Additional bedrooms on second level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioningCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Interior stepsSmoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-23 Price Changed $265,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $267,000 CPARMLS