RC Carlie II Plan

Ward, AR 72176

$190,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 416 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,427/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax + insurance: −$261
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $43/mo
• Annual: $521/yr
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $43,921

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $191k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($521/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 416 days — a 12% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Ward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 416 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.