RC Carlie II Plan · Ward, AR 72176

$190,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily · 413 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Single-story living
• Walk-in closet
• Private location

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• PRIVATE LOCATION
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $190,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Plan home located at RC Carlie II Plan, Ward, AR
• Exterior features: Living area roughly 1,012

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (RC Carlie II)

🏗️ New construction. The $190,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $156,860.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $191k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($521/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Ward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 413 days — a 12% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $142,712 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 413 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,860
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Remington Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,051 (+4%)	5mo	$173,900	$165	77
43 Ten Point Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,051 (+4%)	6mo	$172,900	$165	75
13 Ten Point Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	1mo	$181,000	$158	66
22 Buckshot Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	2mo	$176,950	$155	62
13 Green Apple	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,071 (+6%)	18mo	$159,000	$148	61
13 Ruger Cv	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	4mo	$175,200	$153	59
1250 Peyton St	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,062 (+5%)	12mo	$179,900	$169	56
24 Green Apple Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,139 (+12%)	9mo	$180,000	$158	54
1615 Moon	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,036 (+2%)	11mo	$117,000	$113	53
23 Ariel Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,083 (+7%)	7mo	$152,800	$141	50
25 Windwood Cv Cv	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,147 (+13%)	5mo	$169,999	$148	44
111 Eddy Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-5%)	17mo	$130,000	$135	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $42,134
• Equity at exit: $92,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $123,620
• Equity at exit: $162,160

Cash invested: $43,921 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$196 /mo · $2,353/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $156,860

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $98	+0% $43	+5% $-11	+10% $-65
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $-13	+0% $43	+5% $100	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $83	base $43	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,215
• Closing costs: $4,706
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,450	$1.20	24d	1	0.36mi
29 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	20d	1	0.40mi
21 Windsor Park Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,500	$1.04	24d	1	0.50mi
21 Weatherwood Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	24d	1	0.69mi
33 Langford St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,300	$1.11	24d	1	0.75mi
12 Gold Meadows Loop Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,300	$0.88	24d	1	0.76mi
65 Birchwood Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,650	$1.27	22d	1	0.86mi
14 Stephens St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,395	$1.24	44d	1	0.88mi
21 Kasidyann Ct Ward, AR	4.0	2.0	1415	$1,795	$1.27	24d	1	0.98mi
201 4th St Unit 223 Ward, AR	2.0	1.0	815	$700	$0.86	15d	1	1.15mi
404 Scott St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1195	$1,195	$1.00	20d	1	1.19mi
561 Brewer St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	45d	1	1.25mi
307 Washington St Ward, AR	2.0	1.0	870	$775	$0.89	24d	1	1.27mi
21 Lariat Dr Austin, AR	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,650	$1.11	15d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,900 Active 413 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,900 Active 412 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,900 Active 411 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,900 Active 410 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,900 Active 408 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,900 Active 405 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,900 Active 404 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,900 Active 403 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,900 Active 402 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $190,900 Active 399 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,900 Active 398 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,900 Active 397 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,900 Active 396 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,900 Active 395 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,900 Active 394 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,787
• − Property taxes: −$2,353
• − Insurance: −$784
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$4,563
• Taxable loss: −$2,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$504
• After-tax cash flow: $1,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ward, AR
• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B