1106 Saint John Dr

Pearland, TX 77584

$280,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,021 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,454/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$676
• HOA: −$22
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-227/mo
• Annual: $-2,724/yr
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (12.3% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $240k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Challenger El (math 66% / reading 64%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 570 students, 36% FRL); Berry Miller J H (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #77 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 844 students, 26% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $280k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.