1106 Saint John Dr · Pearland, TX 77584

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,021 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1985 6,298 sqft lot $139/sqft · 10% below area Est $311k · 10% under $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming one-story residence nestled in a well-established community in sought-after Pearland. This home features a functional layout with two spacious living areas and enclosed patios, offering flexible space for everyday living or entertaining. Whether you’re looking for a comfortable primary residence or an investor’s dream, this property is ideal for long-term rental opportunities. Enjoy strong rental demand and unbeatable convenience with easy access to shopping, schools, and major highways.

Key facts

• One story residence
• Strong rental demand
• Enclosed patios

Tags

• ONE STORY RESIDENCE
• TWO SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• ENCLOSED PATIOS
• WELL ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY
• STRONG RENTAL DEMAND
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Challenger El (math 66% / reading 64%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 570 students, 36% FRL); Berry Miller J H (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #77 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 844 students, 26% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $280k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,899 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,938
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -9.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3603 Chatwood Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,910 (-6%)	1mo	$330,000	$173	79
1027 S Wellsford Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	2,085 (+3%)	0mo	$343,000	$165	76
3718 Brighton Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,086 (+3%)	2mo	$310,000	$149	73
1114 Wentworth Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,723 (-15%)	0mo	$260,000	$151	73
3530 Wellington Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,808 (-10%)	2mo	$320,000	$177	71
3438 N Peach Hollow Cir	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,077 (+3%)	3mo	$329,500	$159	70
3823 Addison Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,160 (+7%)	2mo	$334,900	$155	65
1002 Bristol Way	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,308 (+14%)	1mo	$333,200	$144	64
719 Country Meadows Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,130 (+5%)	3mo	$365,000	$171	62
2735 S Peach Hollow Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,953 (-3%)	1mo	$299,800	$154	61
1023 E Hampton Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,261 (+12%)	2mo	$365,000	$161	54
2919 Norwich St	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,184 (+8%)	2mo	$380,000	$174	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-63,373
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-87,884
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77584

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,454 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$559 /mo · $6,708/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,742

Max offer price $239,899

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-69	-5% $-148	+0% $-227	+5% $-306	+10% $-386
Rent	-10% $-421	-5% $-324	+0% $-227	+5% $-130	+10% $-33
Rate	-1.0pp $-86	-0.5pp $-156	base $-227	+0.5pp $-300	+1.0pp $-373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3338 Worthington Dr Pearland, TX	3.0	2.5	2308	$2,450	$1.06	22d	1	0.14mi
3336 Worthington Dr Pearland, TX	3.0	2.5	2308	$2,450	$1.06	21d	1	0.14mi
3517 Walden Dr Pearland, TX	4.0	2.5	1929	$2,695	$1.40	21d	1	0.20mi
3705 Wellington Dr Pearland, TX	4.0	2.0	2144	$2,800	$1.31	45d	1	0.31mi
9721 Cottage St Pearland, TX	4.0	2.0	1955	$2,300	$1.18	21d	1	0.32mi
1055 Margate Dr Pearland, TX	4.0	2.0	1628	$2,041	$1.25	1d	1	0.32mi
2207 Ames St Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,300	$1.48	45d	1	0.34mi
2209 Ames St Pearland, TX	4.0	2.5	2662	$2,449	$0.92	22d	1	0.34mi
3030 Becket St Pearland, TX	3.0	3.0	1598	$2,300	$1.44	45d	1	0.37mi
823 Portsmouth Dr Pearland, TX	4.0	2.5	2639	$2,550	$0.97	7d	1	0.53mi
2912 Norwich St Pearland, TX	4.0	4.0	2162	$2,900	$1.34	22d	1	0.56mi
1126 W Belgravia Dr Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,950	$1.31	19d	1	0.84mi
3403 E Cedar Hollow Dr Pearland, TX	4.0	3.0	2907	$3,400	$1.17	26d	1	0.87mi
4019 Crystal Lake Cir S Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	2383	$2,950	$1.24	19d	1	0.90mi
2718 Sunshade Ct Pearland, TX	3.0	2.5	2281	$2,650	$1.16	22d	1	0.94mi
2725 Lakeside Dr Pearland, TX	4.0	3.5	2851	$3,100	$1.09	26d	1	0.97mi
2726 S Cedar Hollow Dr Pearland, TX	4.0	2.0	2130	$2,350	$1.10	45d	1	1.07mi
815 N Elder Grove Dr Pearland, TX	4.0	2.0	2244	$2,550	$1.14	22d	1	1.14mi
2414 County Road 90 Pearland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1192	$2,352	$1.97	0d	19	1.30mi
2020 Business Center Dr Pearland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$2,942	$2.59	0d	63	1.47mi
2400 Business Center Dr Pearland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$2,228	$2.03	1d	12	1.48mi
2500 Business Center Dr Pearland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1071	$2,176	$2.03	1d	25	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 534-char remark

   Show marketing remark (534 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming one-story residence nestled in a well-established community in sought-after Pearland. This home features a functional layout with two spacious living areas and enclosed patios, offering flexible space for everyday living or entertaining. Whether you’re looking for a comfortable primary residence or an investor’s dream, this property is ideal for long-term rental opportunities. Enjoy strong rental demand and unbeatable convenience with easy access to shopping, schools, and major highways.

2. 2026-03-18
   price $280,000 534-char remark

   Show marketing remark (534 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming one-story residence nestled in a well-established community in sought-after Pearland. This home features a functional layout with two spacious living areas and enclosed patios, offering flexible space for everyday living or entertaining. Whether you’re looking for a comfortable primary residence or an investor’s dream, this property is ideal for long-term rental opportunities. Enjoy strong rental demand and unbeatable convenience with easy access to shopping, schools, and major highways.

3. 2026-02-05
   listed $315,000 Active 534-char remark

   Show marketing remark (534 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming one-story residence nestled in a well-established community in sought-after Pearland. This home features a functional layout with two spacious living areas and enclosed patios, offering flexible space for everyday living or entertaining. Whether you’re looking for a comfortable primary residence or an investor’s dream, this property is ideal for long-term rental opportunities. Enjoy strong rental demand and unbeatable convenience with easy access to shopping, schools, and major highways.

4. 2007-07-09
   soldstatus
5. 2007-07-09
   soldstatus
6. 2007-01-07
   historical
7. 2006-02-07
   listed $126,900
8. 2005-08-23
   historical
9. 2005-08-09
   listed $135,000
10. 2005-07-27
    historical
11. 2005-02-23
    listed $135,000
12. 1986-03-01
    soldstatus $69,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,708 · $559/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,708 · $559/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$6,708
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,356
• − Management: −$2,356
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$7,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,791
• After-tax cash flow: $-933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearland, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 91,065
• Household income: $121,872
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Hispanic / Latino 22% Asian 21% Black 21% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 14% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.09%
• Current HPI: 213.4011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+300.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2007-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-01-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-02-07 Listed $126,900 HARMLS
• 2005-08-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-08-09 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2005-07-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-02-23 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 1986-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $69,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,708 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.