159-161 W Fourth St

Lewistown, PA 17044

$190,000C+

8 bd · 0.0 ba · 2,084 sqft · Built 1935 · MultiFamily · Pending · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,246/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $461/mo
• Annual: $5,536/yr
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.41%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 4-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $231/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,057 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Mifflin County SD (town): math 28% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #380 of 539 in PA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Mifflin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mifflin County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $190k implies a 375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.5% in Lewistown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.