Duplex
159-161 W Fourth St · Lewistown, PA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $511 – $949
Heat risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 96°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 17 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +25.8/30.0
- DSCR +8.6/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +6.8/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.3/5.0
- Schools +3.2/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$190,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed
Listing remarks MLS
This unique multi-unit property offers a fantastic opportunity for investors or owner occupants. In addition to the main duplex, the property features a separate unit above the garage ready to be finished your way, providing an excellent opportunity for additional rental income or flexible living space. Each main unit offers comfortable living areas with separate entrances, While the garage apartment adds even more value and versatility. Whether used as a third rental Unit, guest space, or home office, this bonus unit enhances the property's income potential. Conveniently situated near local shops, dining, schools, and everyday amenities, With multiple income Streams and a practical layout, it's a strong addition to any real estate portfolio. Don't miss this opportunity to own a versatile, income producing property. * Buyer agent to verify square footage of property
Key facts
- Garage apartment
- Separate entrances
- Multi-unit property
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2 × 4-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $231/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
- Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.0% in Lewistown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,057 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, commute F.
- Mifflin County SD (town): math 28% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #380 of 539 in PA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Mifflin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Mifflin County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $40k; list at $190k implies a 375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.18% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.21%
- Cash-on-cash
- 10.41%
- DSCR
- 1.46
- GRM
- 7.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $108,847
- List price
- $190,000
- Delta
- 74.56%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -0.7%
- Equity multiple
- 0.97×
- Total profit
- $-1,374
- Equity at exit
- $28,330
- IRR
- 9.0%
- Equity multiple
- 1.69×
- Total profit
- $36,772
- Equity at exit
- $16,428
Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Pennsylvania
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 17044
- Home prices YoY
- -6.7%
- Active inventory
- 73
- Price-to-rent
- 14.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,246 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$996
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
- Insurance
- −$79
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$472
- Net cashflow
- $461
Break-even live
2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2× units | 4 | — | $2,246 |
| #1 | 4 | — | $1,123 |
| #2 | 4 | — | $1,123 |
| Total (2 units) | $2,246 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $47,500
- Closing costs
- $5,700
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 22 events
-
2026-06-17status $190,000 Pending 81 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $190,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $190,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $190,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-06-12days on market $190,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $190,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $190,000 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $190,000 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-06-07pricedays on market $190,000 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $210,000 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $210,000 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $210,000 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $210,000 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-04-27price $210,000 878-char remark
Show marketing remark (878 chars)
This unique multi-unit property offers a fantastic opportunity for investors or owner occupants. In addition to the main duplex, the property features a separate unit above the garage ready to be finished your way, providing an excellent opportunity for additional rental income or flexible living space. Each main unit offers comfortable living areas with separate entrances, While the garage apartment adds even more value and versatility. Whether used as a third rental Unit, guest space, or home office, this bonus unit enhances the property's income potential. Conveniently situated near local shops, dining, schools, and everyday amenities, With multiple income Streams and a practical layout, it's a strong addition to any real estate portfolio. Don't miss this opportunity to own a versatile, income producing property. * Buyer agent to verify square footage of property
-
2026-04-09price $225,000 878-char remark
Show marketing remark (878 chars)
This unique multi-unit property offers a fantastic opportunity for investors or owner occupants. In addition to the main duplex, the property features a separate unit above the garage ready to be finished your way, providing an excellent opportunity for additional rental income or flexible living space. Each main unit offers comfortable living areas with separate entrances, While the garage apartment adds even more value and versatility. Whether used as a third rental Unit, guest space, or home office, this bonus unit enhances the property's income potential. Conveniently situated near local shops, dining, schools, and everyday amenities, With multiple income Streams and a practical layout, it's a strong addition to any real estate portfolio. Don't miss this opportunity to own a versatile, income producing property. * Buyer agent to verify square footage of property
-
2026-03-27$235,000 Active 878-char remark
Show marketing remark (878 chars)
This unique multi-unit property offers a fantastic opportunity for investors or owner occupants. In addition to the main duplex, the property features a separate unit above the garage ready to be finished your way, providing an excellent opportunity for additional rental income or flexible living space. Each main unit offers comfortable living areas with separate entrances, While the garage apartment adds even more value and versatility. Whether used as a third rental Unit, guest space, or home office, this bonus unit enhances the property's income potential. Conveniently situated near local shops, dining, schools, and everyday amenities, With multiple income Streams and a practical layout, it's a strong addition to any real estate portfolio. Don't miss this opportunity to own a versatile, income producing property. * Buyer agent to verify square footage of property
-
2010-03-25historical
-
2010-03-25$58,000
-
2010-03-25$58,000
-
2010-03-25historical
-
2003-10-10soldstatus $40,000
-
2003-07-08$45,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $26,952
- − Mortgage interest
- −$10,643
- − Property taxes
- −$2,850
- − Insurance
- −$950
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,156
- − Management
- −$2,156
- − Depreciation
- −$5,527
- Taxable income
- $2,669
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$641
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,895/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This multi-family property is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. The property offers excellent income potential with a separate unit above the garage ready to be finished.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
- Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
- Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
- Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal
Renovation cost estimate screening
Value-add ROI direction
- Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
- Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
- Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑
ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Mifflin County SD
- NCES district ID
- 4215290
- Math proficiency
- 28% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 49% ▼ -9.00%
- Median HH income
- $40,718
- Composite
- 32.28/100
- National rank
- #5755
- State rank
- #380 of 539 in PA
Livability — Lewistown
- Score
- 66/100
- State rank
- #1057
- US rank
- #11920
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Lewistown, PA
- Population (ZIP)
- 20,526
Population outlook (Mifflin County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 44,611 people
- By 2030
- 43,212 · -3.1%
- By 2040
- 40,197 · -9.9%
- By 2050
- 36,813 · -17.5%
- By 2075
- 28,833 · -35.4%
- By 2100
- 20,296 · -54.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (92%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Polish 2% Serbian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 1%
- Languages at home
- 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Mifflin
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+56.4) · D 21.4% · R 77.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -56.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+56.4 2020: R+56.1 2016: R+57.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+33.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -15.27%
- Current HPI
- 214.2729
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.68%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $309B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $27B |
|
||
| Telecommunications / Media | 1 | $124B |
|
||
| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $22B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 1 | $20B |
|
||
| Chemicals / Materials | 1 | $18B |
|
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Price history
+366.7% since first listed9 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-27 Price Changed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-04-09 Price Changed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-03-27 Listed $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2010-03-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2010-03-25 Listed $58,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2010-03-25 Listed $58,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2010-03-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2003-10-10 Sold (MLS) $40,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2003-07-08 Listed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…