1215 Canyon Creek Cir

College Station, TX 77840

$225,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · Built 2002 · Townhouse · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,710/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$462
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-291/mo
• Annual: $-3,494/yr
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (24.0% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $171k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• College Station ISD (urban): math 58% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Knoll El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 615 students, 67% FRL); Oakwood Int (math 55% / reading 47%, grade C, #326 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 719 students, 48% FRL); A & M Cons H S (math 65% / reading 66%, grade B, #193 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,139 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 24% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,710/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 8224% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.