1215 Canyon Creek Cir · College Station, TX 77840

$225,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · Townhouse public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2002 2,627 sqft lot $149/sqft · 18% below area Est $276k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome located in the desirable Canyon Creek Townhomes community! This gated community offers a community pool and visitor parking. The functional floor plan features all bedrooms and the laundry room upstairs, with a half bath located downstairs for guests. The kitchen includes an eating bar and opens to a dedicated dining area—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Brand new Samsung stainless steel kitchen appliance package just installed, including a microwave, range, refrigerator, and dishwasher! Tile flooring in all bathrooms adds durability and style. Enjoy the convenience of an attached 2-car garage and a bus stop on Luther with direct access to Texas A & M. Just a couple of miles from the heart of campus, this property is ideal for students, game day stays, or investors!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Community pool
• Attached garage

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• TILE FLOORING IN BATHROOMS
• ATTACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• College Station ISD (urban): math 58% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Knoll El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 615 students, 67% FRL); Oakwood Int (math 55% / reading 47%, grade C, #326 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 719 students, 48% FRL); A & M Cons H S (math 65% / reading 66%, grade B, #193 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,139 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 24% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,710/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 8224% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,973 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,554
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -18.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
801 Luther St W #1601	0.28mi	3/3.0	1,600 (+6%)	1mo	$299,900	$187	74
1251 Canyon Crk	0.09mi	3/3.0	1,432 (-5%)	22mo	$227,000	$159	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-49,169
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-41,130
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77840

• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,710 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$368 /mo · $4,418/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,078

Max offer price $173,569

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-164	-5% $-227	+0% $-291	+5% $-355	+10% $-419
Rent	-10% $-426	-5% $-359	+0% $-291	+5% $-224	+10% $-156
Rate	-1.0pp $-178	-0.5pp $-234	base $-291	+0.5pp $-349	+1.0pp $-409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2300 Cottage Ln College Station, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–5.0	1333	$926	$0.69	15d	33	0.46mi
1198 Jones Butler Rd College Station, TX	1.0–4.0	1.5–4.5	1425	$1,917	$1.34	45d	3	0.46mi
1198 Jones Butler Rd College Station, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.5	1425	$1,998	$1.40	15d	2	0.46mi
2001 Holleman Dr W College Station, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	981	$1,009	$1.03	23d	10	0.49mi
1198 Jones-Butler Rd Unit 1 College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1272	$2,100	$1.65	15d	1	0.54mi
800 Marion Pugh Dr College Station, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–5.5	1226	$1,060	$0.86	15d	20	0.75mi
10328 N Dowling Rd College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	15d	1	0.76mi
301 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	4.0	4.0–4.5	1538	$2,200	$1.43	45d	2	0.92mi
1109 Phoenix St College Station, TX	3.0	1.5	1160	$1,650	$1.42	45d	1	1.17mi
527 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	4.0	4.0	1236	$1,625	$1.31	45d	2	1.20mi
529 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1218	$1,317	$1.08	15d	1	1.21mi
527 Southwest Pkwy #103 College Station, TX	4.0	4.0	1236	$2,800	$2.27	23d	1	1.21mi
4454 Reveille Rd College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1463	$1,650	$1.13	45d	1	1.22mi
528 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	975	$1,039	$1.07	45d	1	1.23mi
528 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	975	$1,060	$1.09	23d	1	1.23mi
515 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1236	$1,458	$1.18	23d	1	1.23mi
521 Southwest Pkwy #303 College Station, TX	4.0	4.0	1236	$460	$0.37	15d	1	1.24mi
3609 Haverford Rd College Station, TX	4.0	4.0	1874	$2,400	$1.28	15d	1	1.27mi
700 Chalet Ct College Station, TX	3.0	1.5	1120	$1,600	$1.43	45d	1	1.36mi
602 Townplace Dr Unit 1328092P College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1291	$3,348	$2.59	23d	1	1.36mi
3510 Paloma Ridge Dr College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	15d	1	1.40mi
3545 Paloma Ridge Dr College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1323	$1,700	$1.28	45d	1	1.44mi
3007 Towers Pkwy College Station, TX	4.0	4.0	1756	$500	$0.28	45d	1	1.48mi
3011 Towers Pkwy College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1271	$1,895	$1.49	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $225,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    listed $229,900 Active 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome located in the desirable Canyon Creek Townhomes community! This gated community offers a community pool and visitor parking. The functional floor plan features all bedrooms and the laundry room upstairs, with a half bath located downstairs for guests. The kitchen includes an eating bar and opens to a dedicated dining area—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Brand new Samsung stainless steel kitchen appliance package just installed, including a microwave, range, refrigerator, and dishwasher! Tile flooring in all bathrooms adds durability and style. Enjoy the convenience of an attached 2-car garage and a bus stop on Luther with direct access to Texas A & M. Just a couple of miles from the heart of campus, this property is ideal for students, game day stays, or investors!

18. 2025-01-17
    historical $700
19. 2024-07-07
    listed $700
20. 2024-06-23
    historical $700
21. 2024-06-12
    listed $700
22. 2024-06-06
    historical $700
23. 2024-06-06
    listed $700
24. 2024-06-06
    historical $700
25. 2024-05-23
    listed $700
26. 2024-05-22
    listed $220,000 Active
27. 2022-11-10
    soldstatus
28. 2022-11-04
    soldstatus
29. 2022-11-04
    soldstatus
30. 2022-10-03
    listed $209,000
31. 2017-06-08
    soldstatus
32. 2017-06-07
    soldstatus
33. 2017-04-20
    listed $167,900
34. 2013-06-25
    soldstatus
35. 2003-03-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,418 · $368/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,418 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,418
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$7,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,790
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: College Station ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807350
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,991
• Composite: 46.54/100
• National rank: #2428
• State rank: #113 of 826 in TX

Livability — College Station

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #994

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: College Station, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 131,628
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 54,864
• Household income: $30,377
• Rent vs Own: 89.7% rent · 10.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8224.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Black 11% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.15%
• Current HPI: 195.2885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.24%
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+36.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $229,900 BCSRMLS
• 2025-01-17 Rental Removed $700 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-07 Listed for Rent $700 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-23 Rental Removed $700 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-12 Listed for Rent $700 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-06 Rental Removed $700 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-06 Listed for Rent $700 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-06 Rental Removed $700 BCSRMLS
• 2024-05-23 Listed for Rent $700 BCSRMLS
• 2024-05-22 Listed $220,000 BCSRMLS
• 2022-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-04 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2022-10-03 Listed $209,000 BCSRMLS
• 2017-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-07 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2017-04-20 Listed $167,900 BCSRMLS
• 2013-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,418 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.