209 Mcelroy St

Southmayd, TX 76273

$115,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,368/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $357/mo
• Annual: $4,278/yr
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.29%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#610 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• S And S CISD (rural): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #381 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: S And S Cons El (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 331 students, 49% FRL); S And S Cons Middle (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 312 students, 48% FRL); S And S Cons H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 300 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 333 active listings in the ZIP; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.