311 Justin Ct

Roseville, CA 95678

$166,900B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,803/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$875
• Tax + insurance: −$278
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $1,061/mo
• Annual: $12,731/yr
• Cap rate: 13.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.24%
• DSCR: 2.21
• 1% rule: 1.68%
• Cash to close: $46,732

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $167k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $167k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Roseville Joint Union High (urban): math 42% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #86 of 517 in CA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 2.8% in Roseville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.