2095 Linwood Rd

Watertown, TN 37184

$690,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,042 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,903/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,618
• Tax + insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-2,594/mo
• Annual: $-31,128/yr
• Cap rate: 1.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.11%
• DSCR: 0.28
• 1% rule: 0.28%
• Cash to close: $193,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $690k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (66.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (72.4% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($649k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (72.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $69k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Wilson County (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #10 of 139 in TN (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 1,927 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wilson County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.