2095 Linwood Rd · Watertown, TN 37184

$690,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,042 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2022 6.28 ac lot $227/sqft · 15% below area Est $816k · 15% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, like-new one-level home set on over 6 acres, offers privacy, functionality, and low-maintenance living. Bright and open layout, the large living room flows into the kitchen appointed with custom cabinetry, an oversized pantry complete with built-ins, and tongue & groove ceiling. This well-designed home features 2 primary suites--ideal for multi-generational living or an in-law arrangement, plus an additional bedroom & a flex room too, currently being used as an office. Step outside to enjoy peaceful hilltop views from the front yard, and the 3-season room in the back with 2 open decks provides the perfect setting for relaxing while taking in the natural beauty of the property. This home was built for low-maintenance living for years to come–all living spaces feature high-end luxury vinyl plank flooring, the exterior features premium metal siding and a metal roof, and even the lot is easy to care for with approximately half of the acreage being wooded, providing a scenic backdrop and added seclusion. A 3-car garage provides ample space for vehicles, equipment, and additional storage. The driveway that leads to the log home can be gated off at Buyers' request. Up to 1% lender credit on the loan amount when buyer uses Seller's Preferred Lender.

Key facts

• One-level home
• Custom cabinetry
• Flex room

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL HOME
• OVER 6 ACRES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• OVERSIZED PANTRY
• TONGUE GROOVE CEILING
• FLEX ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $690k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (66.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (72.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (72.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Wilson County (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #10 of 139 in TN (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 1,927 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $69k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wilson County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($649k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,273 (72.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.28% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.11%
• DSCR: 0.28
• GRM: 30.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $815,565
• List price: $690,000
• Delta: -15.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $210,193
• Equity at exit: $621,607

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $748,146
• Equity at exit: $1,340,518

Cash invested: $193,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37184

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 30.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,618
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,295/yr
• Insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-2,594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,186

Max offer price $231,754

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,203	-5% $-2,399	+0% $-2,594	+5% $-2,789	+10% $-2,985
Rent	-10% $-2,744	-5% $-2,669	+0% $-2,594	+5% $-2,519	+10% $-2,444
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,247	-0.5pp $-2,419	base $-2,594	+0.5pp $-2,773	+1.0pp $-2,955

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $172,500
• Closing costs: $20,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $690,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $690,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $690,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $750,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $750,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $750,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $750,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $750,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $750,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $750,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $750,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $750,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-05-01
    price $750,000 1286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Beautiful, like-new one-level home set on over 6 acres, offers privacy, functionality, and low-maintenance living. Bright and open layout, the large living room flows into the kitchen appointed with custom cabinetry, an oversized pantry complete with built-ins, and tongue & groove ceiling. This well-designed home features 2 primary suites--ideal for multi-generational living or an in-law arrangement, plus an additional bedroom & a flex room too, currently being used as an office. Step outside to enjoy peaceful hilltop views from the front yard, and the 3-season room in the back with 2 open decks provides the perfect setting for relaxing while taking in the natural beauty of the property. This home was built for low-maintenance living for years to come–all living spaces feature high-end luxury vinyl plank flooring, the exterior features premium metal siding and a metal roof, and even the lot is easy to care for with approximately half of the acreage being wooded, providing a scenic backdrop and added seclusion. A 3-car garage provides ample space for vehicles, equipment, and additional storage. The driveway that leads to the log home can be gated off at Buyers' request. Up to 1% lender credit on the loan amount when buyer uses Seller's Preferred Lender.

14. 2026-03-30
    listed $775,000 Active 1286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Beautiful, like-new one-level home set on over 6 acres, offers privacy, functionality, and low-maintenance living. Bright and open layout, the large living room flows into the kitchen appointed with custom cabinetry, an oversized pantry complete with built-ins, and tongue & groove ceiling. This well-designed home features 2 primary suites--ideal for multi-generational living or an in-law arrangement, plus an additional bedroom & a flex room too, currently being used as an office. Step outside to enjoy peaceful hilltop views from the front yard, and the 3-season room in the back with 2 open decks provides the perfect setting for relaxing while taking in the natural beauty of the property. This home was built for low-maintenance living for years to come–all living spaces feature high-end luxury vinyl plank flooring, the exterior features premium metal siding and a metal roof, and even the lot is easy to care for with approximately half of the acreage being wooded, providing a scenic backdrop and added seclusion. A 3-car garage provides ample space for vehicles, equipment, and additional storage. The driveway that leads to the log home can be gated off at Buyers' request. Up to 1% lender credit on the loan amount when buyer uses Seller's Preferred Lender.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,295 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,899 · $408/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,604/yr (+$217/mo · 113.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,651
• − Property taxes: −$2,295
• − Insurance: −$3,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − Depreciation: −$20,073
• Taxable loss: −$45,289
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,869
• After-tax cash flow: $-20,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson County
• NCES district ID: 4704550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $68,429
• Composite: 38.33/100
• National rank: #4225
• State rank: #10 of 139 in TN

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5029

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,224

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 160,409 people
• By 2030: 176,099 · +9.8%
• By 2040: 206,769 · +28.9%
• By 2050: 235,383 · +46.7%
• By 2075: 302,144 · +88.4%
• By 2100: 343,710 · +114.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Philippines
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.1) · D 29.4% · R 69.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: -36.6pp · 2024: -40.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.1 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+41.6 2008: R+36.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.35%
• Current HPI: 425.096
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $750,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $775,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+80.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,295 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.