3107 Old Cape Charles Rd

Cape Charles, VA 23310

$399,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$295
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-681/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-681/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (26.1% below list).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $295k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#420 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, cost of living D+.
• Northampton County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #103 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kiptopeke Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 351 students, 100% FRL); Northampton Middle (math 37% / reading 67%, grade C+, #218 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 206 students, 99% FRL); Northampton High (math 47% / reading 77%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 433 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 68% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 164 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northampton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.2% in Cape Charles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.