3107 Old Cape Charles Rd · Cape Charles, VA 23310

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1997 1.94 ac lot $285/sqft · 6% below area Est $425k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cape Charles: 1.95 acre 3bdrm2bath 2car attached garage. Primary bedroom/bath on one side, two others with bath on the other side. Can be sold semi furnished. Can be ready for vacation rental market quickly. Right outside of Town, 2 mile walk from the house to Rayfield's on the new trail. No Town taxes, NO HOA. Plenty of land for pool, boat/rv storage. Sit on the porch and watch the ponies play. Owner/agent

Key facts

• Boat rv storage
• 1.95 acre
• 1.94 acre lot

Tags

• 1.95 ACRE
• PLENTY OF LAND FOR POOL
• BOAT RV STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-681/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.2% in Cape Charles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#420 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, cost of living D+.
• Northampton County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #103 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kiptopeke Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 351 students, 100% FRL); Northampton Middle (math 37% / reading 67%, grade C+, #218 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 206 students, 99% FRL); Northampton High (math 47% / reading 77%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 433 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 68% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 164 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northampton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,000 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $425,234
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -6.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-68,451
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-65,002
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23310

• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,543/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,022

Max offer price $388,978

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $56	+0% $-57	+5% $-170	+10% $-283
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-173	+0% $-57	+5% $60	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $45	base $-57	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
304 Troon Ct Cape Charles, VA	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,950	$1.90	45d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $399,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $399,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $425,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $425,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $425,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $425,000 Active 86 DOM
18. 2026-03-05
    listed $425,000 Active 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Cape Charles: 1.95 acre 3bdrm2bath 2car attached garage. Primary bedroom/bath on one side, two others with bath on the other side. Can be sold semi furnished. Can be ready for vacation rental market quickly. Right outside of Town, 2 mile walk from the house to Rayfield's on the new trail. No Town taxes, NO HOA. Plenty of land for pool, boat/rv storage. Sit on the porch and watch the ponies play. Owner/agent

19. 2026-03-03
    status Active
20. 2026-03-03
    price $415,000
21. 2025-12-03
    listed $389,900 Active
22. 2025-06-02
    price $389,900
23. 2025-05-26
    listed $424,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,543 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,272 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,729/yr (+$144/mo · 112.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$1,543
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$7,759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,862
• After-tax cash flow: $1,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northampton County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102710
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,253
• Composite: 40.63/100
• National rank: #3687
• State rank: #103 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cape Charles

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #18001

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,934

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,360 people
• By 2030: 10,838 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 9,696 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 8,764 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 6,885 · -39.4%
• By 2100: 4,891 · -56.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 28% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.2) · D 52.7% · R 46.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: 16.5pp · 2024: 6.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.2 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+9.3 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+16.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.64%
• Current HPI: 282.274
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $425,000 ESAR
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — ESAR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $415,000 ESAR
• 2025-12-03 Listed $389,900 ESAR
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $389,900 ESAR
• 2025-05-26 Listed $424,900 ESAR

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,543 · +35.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.