1580 Pooley Rd

Kingsbury, TX 78638

$229,320C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Pending · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,145/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,203
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $192/mo
• Annual: $2,305/yr
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.59%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $64,210

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (6.5% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,407 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Luling ISD (town): math 23% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #718 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: fencing — Sections of the fencing are missing or damaged, requiring replacement.
• Moderate: roof — The roof appears aged and may need minor repairs or replacement.
• Major: flooring — The area appears dry and dusty, suggesting possible water damage or lack of maintenance, which may require replacement or repair.
• Major: interior walls/paint — The exterior suggests possible paint peeling or damage, which may require repainting or repair.
• Major: bathrooms — The exterior suggests possible plumbing issues or lack of maintenance, which may require plumbing repairs or replacement.
• Major: kitchen — The exterior suggests possible plumbing issues or lack of maintenance, which may require plumbing repairs or replacement.