1580 Pooley Rd · Kingsbury, TX 78638

$229,320

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2021 Fair condition 1.85 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect blend of comfort and country living on just under two acres of serene Texas landscape. This well-maintained double-wide manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a spacious interior designed for both relaxation and entertaining. School bus pickup and drop-off at the corner of the street adds everyday convenience for families. The home’s warm and inviting living spaces create a welcoming atmosphere, while the expansive outdoor area provides exceptional flexibility. Whether you envision gardening, outdoor recreation, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings, the property offers ample room to bring your ideas to life. With minimal restrictions, customization opportunities are abundant. A low tax rate further enhances the value of this exceptional property. Don’t miss the chance to secure a versatile and charming country retreat. Schedule your private showing today.

Key facts

• Ample room
• Well maintained
• Low tax rate

Tags

• SERENE TEXAS LANDSCAPE
• WELL MAINTAINED
• SPACIOUS INTERIOR
• EXPANSIVE OUTDOOR AREA
• AMPLE ROOM
• LOW TAX RATE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($934/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,407 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Luling ISD (town): math 23% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #718 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,059 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.45%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.76% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $41,928
• Equity at exit: $113,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $131,101
• Equity at exit: $182,441

Cash invested: $64,210 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78638

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,203
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,454/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,902

Max offer price $229,320

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $143	+0% $78	+5% $13	+10% $-52
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $-1	+0% $78	+5% $157	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $193	-0.5pp $136	base $78	+0.5pp $18	+1.0pp $-42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,330
• Closing costs: $6,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $229,320 Pending 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,320 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $229,320 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-04-21
   price $251,160 923-char remark

   Show marketing remark (923 chars)

   Discover the perfect blend of comfort and country living on just under two acres of serene Texas landscape. This well-maintained double-wide manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a spacious interior designed for both relaxation and entertaining. School bus pickup and drop-off at the corner of the street adds everyday convenience for families. The home’s warm and inviting living spaces create a welcoming atmosphere, while the expansive outdoor area provides exceptional flexibility. Whether you envision gardening, outdoor recreation, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings, the property offers ample room to bring your ideas to life. With minimal restrictions, customization opportunities are abundant. A low tax rate further enhances the value of this exceptional property. Don’t miss the chance to secure a versatile and charming country retreat. Schedule your private showing today.

5. 2026-03-05
   listed $273,000 Active 923-char remark

   Show marketing remark (923 chars)

   Discover the perfect blend of comfort and country living on just under two acres of serene Texas landscape. This well-maintained double-wide manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a spacious interior designed for both relaxation and entertaining. School bus pickup and drop-off at the corner of the street adds everyday convenience for families. The home’s warm and inviting living spaces create a welcoming atmosphere, while the expansive outdoor area provides exceptional flexibility. Whether you envision gardening, outdoor recreation, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings, the property offers ample room to bring your ideas to life. With minimal restrictions, customization opportunities are abundant. A low tax rate further enhances the value of this exceptional property. Don’t miss the chance to secure a versatile and charming country retreat. Schedule your private showing today.

6. 2026-02-16
   historical
7. 2025-09-19
   price $184,250
8. 2025-09-11
   listed $198,000 Active
9. 2025-05-14
   status Pending
10. 2025-04-30
    status Active
11. 2024-11-12
    price
12. 2024-09-19
    price
13. 2024-05-22
    price
14. 2024-05-10
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,454 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,197 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,743/yr (+$145/mo · 71.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,845
• − Property taxes: −$2,454
• − Insurance: −$1,147
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − Depreciation: −$6,671
• Taxable loss: −$2,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$708
• After-tax cash flow: $1,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and updates to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value. The property is in fair condition with poor exterior and interior conditions, requiring extensive work to bring it up to a good condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major fencing — Sections of the fencing are missing or damaged, requiring replacement.
• Moderate roof — The roof appears aged and may need minor repairs or replacement.
• Major flooring — The area appears dry and dusty, suggesting possible water damage or lack of maintenance, which may require replacement or repair.
• Major interior walls/paint — The exterior suggests possible paint peeling or damage, which may require repainting or repair.
• Major bathrooms — The exterior suggests possible plumbing issues or lack of maintenance, which may require plumbing repairs or replacement.
• Major kitchen — The exterior suggests possible plumbing issues or lack of maintenance, which may require plumbing repairs or replacement.
• Major systems — The exterior suggests possible electrical or HVAC issues or lack of maintenance, which may require electrical or HVAC repairs or replacement.
• Major landscaping — The yard is overgrown and unkempt, requiring landscaping and maintenance to improve curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal can significantly enhance the home's resale and rental value by making it more attractive and inviting.
• Both interior repairs and updates — Addressing the interior issues, such as painting and plumbing repairs, can improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters.
• Both roof repair or replacement — Repairing or replacing the roof can protect the home from further damage and improve its overall condition, which is important for both resale and rental value.
• Both fencing repair or replacement — Repairing or replacing the fencing can improve the home's security and appearance, which is important for both resale and rental value.
• Both flooring repair or replacement — Repairing or replacing the flooring can improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters, which is important for both resale and rental value.
• Both interior wall and paint repair — Repairing or repainting the interior walls can improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters, which is important for both resale and rental value.
• Both bathroom plumbing repairs or replacement — Repairing or replacing the bathroom plumbing can improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters, which is important for both resale and rental value.
• Both kitchen plumbing repairs or replacement — Repairing or replacing the kitchen plumbing can improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters, which is important for both resale and rental value.
• Both system repairs or replacement — Repairing or replacing the HVAC or electrical systems can improve the home's condition and make it more energy-efficient, which is important for both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
fencing · Sections of the fencing are missing or damaged, requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · The roof appears aged and may need minor repairs or replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
flooring · The area appears dry and dusty, suggesting possible water damage or lack of maintenance, which may require replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · The exterior suggests possible paint peeling or damage, which may require repainting or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · The exterior suggests possible plumbing issues or lack of maintenance, which may require plumbing repairs or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · The exterior suggests possible plumbing issues or lack of maintenance, which may require plumbing repairs or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · The exterior suggests possible electrical or HVAC issues or lack of maintenance, which may require electrical or HVAC repairs or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The yard is overgrown and unkempt, requiring landscaping and maintenance to improve curb appeal and value.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$108,000–365,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal can significantly enhance the home's resale and rental value by making it more attractive and inviting. ↑
• Both interior repairs and updates — Addressing the interior issues, such as painting and plumbing repairs, can improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both roof repair or replacement — Repairing or replacing the roof can protect the home from further damage and improve its overall condition, which is important for both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both fencing repair or replacement — Repairing or replacing the fencing can improve the home's security and appearance, which is important for both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both flooring repair or replacement — Repairing or replacing the flooring can improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters, which is important for both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both interior wall and paint repair — Repairing or repainting the interior walls can improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters, which is important for both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both bathroom plumbing repairs or replacement — Repairing or replacing the bathroom plumbing can improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters, which is important for both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both kitchen plumbing repairs or replacement — Repairing or replacing the kitchen plumbing can improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters, which is important for both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both system repairs or replacement — Repairing or replacing the HVAC or electrical systems can improve the home's condition and make it more energy-efficient, which is important for both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Luling ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828590
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,233
• Composite: 21.21/100
• National rank: #8411
• State rank: #718 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kingsbury

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1407
• US rank: #24094

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing F Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,064

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.76%
• Current HPI: 180.1534
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+26.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $251,160 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $273,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $184,250 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $198,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-30 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-22 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-10 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-4.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,454 · +21.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.