1483 Portville Obi Rd

Weston Mills, NY 14770

$139,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,117/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$376
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-228/mo
• Annual: $-2,731/yr
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $100k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (20.2% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $100k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#667 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Portville Central School District (rural): math 63% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #190 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Portville Elementary School (math 60% / reading 62%, grade B, #736 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 518 students, 46% FRL); Portville Junior-Senior High School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #715 of 1,100 statewide, top 67%, 450 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $140k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.