1483 Portville Obi Rd · Weston Mills, NY 14770

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1982 1.10 ac lot Est $128k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom ranch situated on a beautiful 1.1-acre lot in a peaceful setting! This home offers comfortable one-level living with the added bonus of a partially finished basement that expands your living space. Downstairs you’ll find two bonus rooms, a kitchenette, and a bathroom already in place—perfect for guests, extended living, hobbies, or a potential in-law setup. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of the spacious yard along with a large shed conveniently located next to the home, providing excellent storage and easy access. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy country-style living with room to grow!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Kitchenette
• Two bonus rooms

Tags

• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• TWO BONUS ROOMS
• KITCHENETTE
• LARGE SHED
• SPACIOUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $100k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#667 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Portville Central School District (rural): math 63% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #190 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Portville Elementary School (math 60% / reading 62%, grade B, #736 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 518 students, 46% FRL); Portville Junior-Senior High School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #715 of 1,100 statewide, top 67%, 450 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $140k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $99,699 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,128
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1483 Portville Obi Rd	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$128,000	$104	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $40,416
• Equity at exit: $103,280

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $128,196
• Equity at exit: $202,207

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14770

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,117 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,815/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $99,699

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-148	-5% $-188	+0% $-228	+5% $-267	+10% $-307
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-272	+0% $-228	+5% $-183	+10% $-139
Rate	-1.0pp $-157	-0.5pp $-192	base $-228	+0.5pp $-264	+1.0pp $-301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   listed $139,900 Active
3. 2026-02-06
   historical
4. 2025-09-29
   price $154,900
5. 2025-08-08
   listed $159,900 Active
6. 2004-05-04
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,815 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,815 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$3,815
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,072
• − Management: −$1,072
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$5,163
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,239
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623640
• Math proficiency: 63% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,207
• Composite: 54.6/100
• National rank: #1337
• State rank: #190 of 590 in NY

Livability — Weston Mills

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #12400

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 95
• Population (ZIP): 2,805

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.68%
• Current HPI: 276.8841
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $139,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $154,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $159,900 UNYREIS
• 2004-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,815 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.