1294 Guerrero St

San Francisco, CA 94110

$1,749,000D

9 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,880 sqft · Built 1948 · MultiFamily · Active · 292 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,713/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,172
• Tax + insurance: −$2,915
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,880
• Net cashflow: $-1,254/mo
• Annual: $-15,044/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $489,720

Investor read

• This is a 9-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.75M. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.57M (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.37M (21.6% below list).
• It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.54M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.37M (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $52k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $140k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $13,713/mo this rent would consume 104% of the median local household income ($158k/yr) (locally 2732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior paint — Significant discoloration and wear
• Major: interior paint — Chipping and peeling
• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — Older style and worn
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures with some wear
• Moderate: flooring — Worn and dated appearance
• Moderate: HVAC systems — Standard systems with some wear