1294 Guerrero St · San Francisco, CA 94110

$1,749,000

9 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,880 sqft · MultiFamily · 292 Days on market

Built 1948 Fair condition 1,916 sqft lot $607/sqft · 8% below area Est $1899k · 8% under ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Good opportunity for Investors/Owner users to own this solid 2 story Building in the vibrant 24th & Valencia Streets area. it consists of 2 1br/1ba units and 1 2br/1ba unit, plus an unwarranted In-Law unit, attached 2 car parking garage and a backyard.

Key facts

• Backyard
• 2 story building
• 1,916 sq ft lot

Tags

• 2 STORY BUILDING
• ATTACHED 2 CAR PARKING GARAGE
• BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 9-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.75M. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.57M (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.38M (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.38M (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $13,763/mo this rent would consume 104% of the median local household income ($158k/yr) (locally 2732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $52k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.54M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $140k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,376,300 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,899,329
• List price: $1,749,000
• Delta: -7.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3779-3781 25th St	0.09mi	9/3.0	3,100 (+8%)	7mo	$2,285,000	$737	78
1330 Valencia St	0.13mi	8/3.0 (-1)	2,612 (-9%)	20mo	$1,250,000	$479	57
828-830 Treat Ave	0.67mi	8/3.0 (-1)	2,800 (-3%)	7mo	$1,060,000	$379	53
385 29th St	0.57mi	8/4.0 (-1)	2,762 (-4%)	20mo	$1,835,000	$664	41
385 29th St	0.57mi	8/4.0 (-1)	2,762 (-4%)	20mo	$1,835,000	$664	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-287,803
• Equity at exit: $260,782

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-18,303
• Equity at exit: $151,222

Cash invested: $489,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94110

• Rents YoY: 14.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 32.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,172
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,186 /mo · $26,235/yr
• Insurance: −$729
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,890
• Net cashflow: $-1,214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,300

Max offer price $1,573,307

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-610	+0% $-1,214	+5% $-1,819	+10% $-2,423
Rent	-10% $-2,301	-5% $-1,758	+0% $-1,214	+5% $-671	+10% $-127
Rate	-1.0pp $-333	-0.5pp $-769	base $-1,214	+0.5pp $-1,667	+1.0pp $-2,128

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$8,884
1× unit	2	1	$4,879
Total (3 units)			$13,763

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $437,250
• Closing costs: $52,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,749,000 Active 292 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,749,000 Active 289 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,749,000 Active 288 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,749,000 Active 287 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,749,000 Active 286 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,749,000 Active 284 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,749,000 Active 283 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,749,000 Active 280 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,749,000 Active 279 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,749,000 Active 278 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,749,000 Active 275 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,749,000 Active 274 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,749,000 Active 273 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,749,000 Active 272 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,749,000 Active 271 DOM
16. 2025-10-21
    price $1,749,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Good opportunity for Investors/Owner users to own this solid 2 story Building in the vibrant 24th & Valencia Streets area. it consists of 2 1br/1ba units and 1 2br/1ba unit, plus an unwarranted In-Law unit, attached 2 car parking garage and a backyard.

17. 2025-09-02
    listed $1,889,000 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Good opportunity for Investors/Owner users to own this solid 2 story Building in the vibrant 24th & Valencia Streets area. it consists of 2 1br/1ba units and 1 2br/1ba unit, plus an unwarranted In-Law unit, attached 2 car parking garage and a backyard.

18. 2018-06-09
    historical
19. 2018-06-07
    price $1,695,000
20. 2018-02-19
    listed $1,799,000 Active
21. 2017-11-24
    historical
22. 2017-10-09
    price $1,889,000
23. 2017-08-27
    listed $1,989,000 Active
24. 2017-07-07
    historical
25. 2017-06-09
    price $2,368,000
26. 2017-04-26
    listed $2,969,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $165,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$97,971
• − Property taxes: −$26,235
• − Insurance: −$8,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,212
• − Management: −$13,212
• − Depreciation: −$50,880
• Taxable loss: −$45,100
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,824
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This multi-family property requires moderate renovations to improve its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior paint — Significant discoloration and wear
• Major interior paint — Chipping and peeling
• Moderate kitchen cabinets — Older style and worn
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures with some wear
• Moderate flooring — Worn and dated appearance
• Moderate HVAC systems — Standard systems with some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value
• Both Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace worn flooring — Enhances comfort and appearance
• Both Service HVAC systems — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior paint · Significant discoloration and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Chipping and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · Older style and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · Standard fixtures with some wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
flooring · Worn and dated appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
HVAC systems · Standard systems with some wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$42,000–160,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn flooring — Enhances comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Service HVAC systems — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 66,865
• Household income: $158,351
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2732.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 32% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 27% Chinese 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1385.62%
• Current HPI: 267.2424
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.54%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-41.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $1,749,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $1,889,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2018-06-09 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2018-06-07 Price Changed $1,695,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2018-02-19 Listed $1,799,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2017-11-24 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2017-10-09 Price Changed $1,889,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2017-08-27 Listed $1,989,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2017-07-07 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2017-06-09 Price Changed $2,368,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2017-04-26 Listed $2,969,000 San Francisco MLS