2941 Middletown Rd

New York, NY 10461

$819,999D+

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · Built 1925 · MultiFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,436/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,300
• Tax + insurance: −$928
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,352
• Net cashflow: $-144/mo
• Annual: $-1,727/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $229,600

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $820k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-72/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $795k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $644k (21.5% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($795k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $644k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $310k; list at $820k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,436/mo this rent would consume 115% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 4430% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?