2941 Middletown Rd · New York, NY 10461

$819,999

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1925 2,473 sqft lot Est $989k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Don’t miss your chance to own this legal two-family home featuring a spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath unit on the second floor and a generously sized 1-bedroom, 1-bath unit on the first floor—each with separate electric and gas meters. The property includes a shared driveway, a full backyard, and a garage offering additional parking / storage space. The finished basement with a private entrance adds even more potential. Conveniently located just steps from public transportation, including buses and the subway. Tremendous value in a sought-after neighborhood—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Full backyard
• Finished basement
• Private entrance

Tags

• LEGAL TWO-FAMILY HOME
• SHARED DRIVEWAY
• FULL BACKYARD
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; Shared driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Duplex; Total building area approximately 2040
• Construction: Construction materials: Other
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; Construction: Other; Foundation: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One 1-bedroom unit; One 2-bedroom unit
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Open floor plan; Finished basement with walk-out access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $820k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-72/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $795k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $644k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $644k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,436/mo this rent would consume 115% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 4430% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($795k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $310k; list at $820k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $643,600 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $989,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1573 Hollywood Ave	0.13mi	6/2.0	2,052 (+1%)	4mo	$995,000	$485	81
1826 Mulford Ave	0.33mi	6/3.0	2,016 (-1%)	6mo	$1,100,000	$546	73
1617 Ohm Ave	0.56mi	6/—	2,040 (0%)	3mo	$950,000	$466	71
1539 Hollywood Ave	0.20mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,142 (+5%)	3mo	$999,999	$467	71
2888 Wellman Ave	0.21mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,196 (+8%)	2mo	$1,380,000	$628	67
2889 Wellman Ave	0.19mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,110 (+3%)	13mo	$905,000	$429	65
3086 Middletown Rd	0.25mi	6/5.0	2,134 (+5%)	13mo	$1,138,000	$533	65
1215 Fairfax Ave	0.58mi	6/3.0	2,105 (+3%)	6mo	$930,000	$442	58
1464 William Pl	0.32mi	5/3.0 (-1)	1,755 (-14%)	10mo	$800,000	$456	45
3226 Ampere Ave	0.63mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,200 (+8%)	1mo	$984,000	$447	44
1611 Research Ave	0.65mi	6/3.0	1,802 (-12%)	8mo	$999,999	$555	40
1514 Bayview Ave	0.75mi	6/2.0	2,324 (+14%)	2mo	$1,225,000	$527	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-108,274
• Equity at exit: $122,265

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $47,661
• Equity at exit: $70,899

Cash invested: $229,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10461

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 21.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,300
• Tax from tax record: −$587 /mo · $7,039/yr
• Insurance: −$342
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,352
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,618

Max offer price $794,571

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $320	-5% $88	+0% $-144	+5% $-376	+10% $-608
Rent	-10% $-652	-5% $-398	+0% $-144	+5% $110	+10% $365
Rate	-1.0pp $269	-0.5pp $65	base $-144	+0.5pp $-356	+1.0pp $-573

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$6,436
Total (2 units)			$6,436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $205,000
• Closing costs: $24,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $819,999 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $819,999 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $819,999 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $819,999 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $819,999 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $819,999 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $819,999 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $819,999 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $819,999 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $819,999 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $819,999 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $819,999 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $819,999 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    listed $819,999 Active
15. 2025-09-03
    status Pending
16. 2025-09-03
    historical
17. 2025-07-21
    listed $799,999 Active
18. 2025-07-16
    historical
19. 2011-08-03
    historical
20. 2010-09-20
    listed
21. 2004-06-09
    soldstatus $310,000
22. 1998-10-14
    soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,039 · $587/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,448 · $871/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,410/yr (+$284/mo · 48.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $77,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$45,933
• − Property taxes: −$7,039
• − Insurance: −$4,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,179
• − Management: −$6,179
• − Depreciation: −$23,855
• Taxable loss: −$16,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,852
• After-tax cash flow: $2,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 52,012
• Household income: $67,028
• Rent vs Own: 70.3% rent · 29.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4430.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 30% Asian 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 1% Dominican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 13% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.06%
• Current HPI: 266.5457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.99%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+310.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $819,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Listed $799,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-03 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2010-09-20 Listed — HGMLS
• 2004-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 1998-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,039 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.