400 Live Oak St

Marlin, TX 76661

$84,999D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $907/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $93/mo
• Annual: $1,113/yr
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.68%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($907 rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marlin El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 474 students, 99% FRL); Marlin Middle (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 201 students, 100% FRL); Marlin High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,612 of 1,632 statewide, top 99%, 243 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.