166 Pebble Hills Rd

Cochran, GA 31014

$142,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,289/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $37/mo
• Annual: $447/yr
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $39,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($447/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (9.2% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($982 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#458 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bleckley County (rural): math 46% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #28 of 174 in GA (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 109 units permitted in Bleckley County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bleckley County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.5% in Cochran — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.