166 Pebble Hills Rd · Cochran, GA 31014

$142,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1999 0.93 ac lot $101/sqft · 22% below area Est $182k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice double wide mobile home on large lot. Home has been completely remodeled. Newer flooring, newer cabinets and brand-new stainless-steel appliances. Newer counter tops, back deck, metal skirting. Outbuilding to remain.

Key facts

• Newer cabinets
• Newer flooring
• Completely remodeled

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MOBILE HOME
• LARGE LOT
• COMPLETELY REMODELED
• NEWER FLOORING
• NEWER CABINETS
• NEWER COUNTER TOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($447/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.5% in Cochran — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#458 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bleckley County (rural): math 46% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #28 of 174 in GA (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 109 units permitted in Bleckley County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($982 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bleckley County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,401
• List price: $142,000
• Delta: -22.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $79,731
• Equity at exit: $127,925

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.86×
• Total profit: $232,967
• Equity at exit: $275,875

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31014

• Home prices YoY: 19.6%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$178 /mo · $2,130/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,242

Max offer price $142,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $142,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $142,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $142,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $142,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $142,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $142,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $142,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $142,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $142,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $142,000 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $142,000 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice double wide mobile home on large lot. Home has been completely remodeled. Newer flooring, newer cabinets and brand-new stainless-steel appliances. Newer counter tops, back deck, metal skirting. Outbuilding to remain.

19. 2026-05-14
    price $142,000 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice double wide mobile home on large lot. Home has been completely remodeled. Newer flooring, newer cabinets and brand-new stainless-steel appliances. Newer counter tops, back deck, metal skirting. Outbuilding to remain.

20. 2026-02-10
    listed $149,500 Active 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice double wide mobile home on large lot. Home has been completely remodeled. Newer flooring, newer cabinets and brand-new stainless-steel appliances. Newer counter tops, back deck, metal skirting. Outbuilding to remain.

21. 2026-02-09
    status Back On Market

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice double wide mobile home on large lot. Home has been completely remodeled. Newer flooring, newer cabinets and brand-new stainless-steel appliances. Newer counter tops, back deck, metal skirting. Outbuilding to remain.

22. 2026-02-09
    listed $149,500 New 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice double wide mobile home on large lot. Home has been completely remodeled. Newer flooring, newer cabinets and brand-new stainless-steel appliances. Newer counter tops, back deck, metal skirting. Outbuilding to remain.

23. 2026-02-09
    historical

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice double wide mobile home on large lot. Home has been completely remodeled. Newer flooring, newer cabinets and brand-new stainless-steel appliances. Newer counter tops, back deck, metal skirting. Outbuilding to remain.

24. 2026-01-31
    status Under Contract
25. 2025-11-03
    price $149,500
26. 2025-11-03
    price $149,500
27. 2025-10-07
    price $159,900
28. 2025-10-07
    price $159,900
29. 2025-08-03
    price $174,000
30. 2025-08-03
    price $174,000
31. 2025-05-05
    listed $179,000 New
32. 2024-02-26
    soldstatus $120,000
33. 2024-02-21
    soldstatus $120,000 Sold
34. 2024-02-21
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed
35. 2024-02-15
    status Pending
36. 2024-01-31
    status Under Contract
37. 2024-01-24
    listed $119,900 New
38. 2024-01-24
    listed $119,900 Active
39. 2023-09-22
    soldstatus $55,000 Sold
40. 2023-09-22
    soldstatus $55,000
41. 2023-09-14
    status Under Contract
42. 2023-09-06
    price $65,000
43. 2023-08-31
    listed $75,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$2,130
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable loss: −$1,928
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$463
• After-tax cash flow: $910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bleckley County
• NCES district ID: 1300440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,695
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4387
• State rank: #28 of 174 in GA

Livability — Cochran

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #458
• US rank: #21752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,944

Population outlook (Bleckley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,189 people
• By 2030: 12,901 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 12,398 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 11,741 · -11.0%
• By 2075: 10,444 · -20.8%
• By 2100: 9,000 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bleckley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.4) · D 22.1% · R 77.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.5pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -55.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.4 2020: R+52.9 2016: R+53.2 2012: R+47.3 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.18%
• Current HPI: 232.753
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+89.3% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $142,000 CGMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $142,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $149,500 CGMLS
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $149,500 GAMLS
• 2026-01-31 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $149,500 CGMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $149,500 GAMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $159,900 CGMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $159,900 GAMLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $174,000 CGMLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $174,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $179,000 GAMLS
• 2024-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-21 Sold (MLS) $120,000 CGMLS
• 2024-02-21 Sold (MLS) $120,000 GAMLS
• 2024-02-15 Pending — CGMLS
• 2024-01-31 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-01-24 Listed $119,900 CGMLS
• 2024-01-24 Listed $119,900 GAMLS
• 2023-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-22 Sold (MLS) $55,000 GAMLS
• 2023-09-14 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $65,000 GAMLS
• 2023-08-31 Listed $75,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $238 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.