629 E 154th St

Phoenix, IL 60426

$205,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1913 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $985/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $-617/mo
• Annual: $-7,406/yr
• Cap rate: 2.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.90%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (53.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (52.0% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (53.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#230 in IL, #4,248 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.