629 E 154th St · Phoenix, IL 60426

$205,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1913

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this stunning 3-bedroom, 3-bath bungalow, thoughtfully renovated from top to bottom with comfort, style, and modern living in mind. Perfect for a first-time homebuyer or anyone seeking convenient main-level living, this home offers a warm and inviting layout with contemporary finishes throughout. Every detail has been carefully considered, featuring a new roof, new electrical, new HVAC, new plumbing, and beautifully updated interiors. The basement level offers additional cozy living space complete with a full bath, creating the perfect area for entertaining, guests, a home office, or relaxation. This home has passed all inspections and is truly move-in ready. With its fresh

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New hvac
• Updated interiors

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW HVAC
• NEW PLUMBING
• UPDATED INTERIORS
• FULL BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property served by school bus, commuter bus and commuter train; interstate access nearby
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service; Natural gas; Electric for cooling/heating
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story layout; Fee simple ownership; Rehab completed in 2025; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Built approximately 81–90 years ago; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer; Lot between 0.50 and 0.99 acre; Lot dimensions listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (13 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level) — Master: 10 x 14; Bedroom 2: 10 x 10; Bedroom 3: 9 x 10
• Flooring: Wood laminate flooring in living room, family room, master bedroom, Bedroom 2 and Bedroom 3
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (includes a basement full bath)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (5 x 7)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (53.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (52.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (53.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#230 in IL, #4,248 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $95,980 (53.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.90%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 17.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $42,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
828 E 155th St	0.31mi	2/1.0	675 (+12%)	22mo	$47,250	$70	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $72,344
• Equity at exit: $184,680

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $243,955
• Equity at exit: $398,270

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60426

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 17.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $985 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,818/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $-617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,766

Max offer price $95,980

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15324 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 1B Dolton, IL	1.0	1.0	725	$985	$1.36	19d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $205,000 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,818 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,736 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$918/yr (+$76/mo · 32.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,818
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$946
• − Management: −$946
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$11,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,727
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #4248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, IL
• Population (ZIP): 23,066

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% White 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.36%
• Current HPI: 313.7895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,818 · +64.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.