221 Ashbrook St

Little Elm, TX 75068

$334,990D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,886 sqft · Built 2025 · Other · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,537/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-466/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $93,797

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $335k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-466/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (24.3% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#790 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Union Park El (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 695 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Little Elm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.