221 Ashbrook St · Little Elm, TX 75068

$334,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,886 sqft · Other public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2025 4,617 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into a home that truly gives you the space comfort and convenience buyers are looking for in today’s market. This beautiful 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home in Little Elm offers a functional open concept layout with plenty of natural light spacious living areas and a backyard designed for relaxing entertaining and creating memories with family and friends. From the moment you walk in you’ll notice the layout was designed with everyday living in mind. The kitchen opens directly into the main living and dining areas making it easy to host guests stay connected with family or simply enjoy the openness of the home. The generously sized bedrooms provide flexibility for growing families w

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Usable outdoor space
• Open concept layout

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• USABLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• EASY ACCESS TO US 380

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions to property provided
• Financial info: Second mortgage: No; Loan type: Treat As Clear
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee ($900) — includes full use of facilities; HOA managed by Essex

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway; 2-car garage with garage door opener; Has garage
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two-story home; Property is not attached
• Construction: Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre (approximately 0.106 acres); Subdivision: Spiritas Ranch Ph 1g

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approximately 15 x 10); Three additional bedrooms on level 2 (each approximately 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating
• Interior features: Built-in features; Six total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-502/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Little Elm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#790 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Union Park El (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 695 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $253,319 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-64,501
• Equity at exit: $49,948

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-88,812
• Equity at exit: $28,964

Cash invested: $93,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1306
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,533 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $861/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,586

Max offer price $327,598

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,748
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
233 Ashbrook St Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	1880	$2,200	$1.17	12d	1	0.03mi
213 Adelina Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2067	$2,650	$1.28	5d	1	0.04mi
224 Bable Run Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2056	$2,295	$1.12	25d	1	0.04mi
205 Adelina Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	1880	$2,195	$1.17	13d	1	0.05mi
4229 Brindley Rd Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,895	$1.14	44d	1	0.08mi
241 Bable Run Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	1880	$2,175	$1.16	25d	1	0.08mi
249 Bable Run Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2056	$2,295	$1.12	25d	1	0.09mi
260 Backcountry Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2279	$2,345	$1.03	25d	1	0.16mi
4480 FM 720 Aubrey, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$2,319	$2.29	13d	24	0.28mi
440 Backcountry Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2279	$2,395	$1.05	44d	1	0.33mi
536 Breeds Hill Rd Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2175	$2,600	$1.20	21d	1	0.35mi
2309 Astapor Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,465	$1.56	12d	1	0.36mi
2328 Brightstone Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2216	$3,800	$1.71	1d	1	0.38mi
541 Breeds Hill Rd Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,750	$1.16	15d	1	0.38mi
26493 E University Dr Aubrey, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1197	$2,090	$1.75	2d	36	0.42mi
9044 Sundance Trl Cross Roads, TX	4.0	3.0	2124	$2,295	$1.08	25d	1	0.48mi
9044 Sundance Trl Cross Roads, TX	4.0	3.0	2124	$2,295	$1.08	44d	1	0.48mi
213 Kistler Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2470	$2,495	$1.01	22d	1	0.49mi
3876 Lyndhurst Ave Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2471	$2,500	$1.01	44d	1	0.49mi
2340 Evening Stone Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2184	$2,800	$1.28	4d	1	0.54mi
9201 Remington Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1888	$1,895	$1.00	25d	1	0.54mi
8919 Redford Rd Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,950	$1.27	25d	1	0.61mi
1235 Acmite Ave Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,150	$1.48	8d	1	0.62mi
2444 Larimar Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,200	$1.43	25d	1	0.63mi
2344 Opaline Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,295	$1.51	8d	1	0.65mi
3837 Pennington Ave Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2431	$2,650	$1.09	3d	1	0.67mi
9220 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.5	1888	$2,400	$1.27	13d	1	0.67mi
2440 Opaline Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2410	$2,400	$1.00	44d	1	0.67mi
4700 Essonite Rd Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	44d	1	0.68mi
345 Willowmore Dr Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	44d	1	0.68mi
2344 Pyrite Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,050	$1.35	25d	1	0.70mi
3853 Solebay Ct Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2122	$2,700	$1.27	44d	1	0.70mi
9016 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,795	$1.40	8d	1	0.72mi
2281 Obsidian Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$3,000	$2.06	44d	1	0.72mi
2348 Opaline DR Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,095	$1.31	19d	1	0.73mi
2304 Rosaline Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$6,200	$3.93	3d	1	0.76mi
1540 Acmite Ave Cross Roads, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,195	$1.20	19d	1	0.79mi
1540 Acmite Ave Cross Roads, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,095	$1.14	3d	1	0.79mi
9005 Holliday Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1557	$2,100	$1.35	12d	1	0.79mi
1042 Devonshire Dr Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.0	1971	$2,275	$1.15	44d	1	0.81mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,990 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,990 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,990 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,990 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,990 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $334,990 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $334,990 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $334,990 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $334,990 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 687-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $334,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $861 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,130 · $511/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,269/yr (+$439/mo · 611.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$861
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,432
• − Management: −$2,432
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$6,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,539
• After-tax cash flow: $1,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Little Elm

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #790
• US rank: #14430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Little Elm, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 72,710
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $334,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $861 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.