w4870 30th St

Germantown, WI 54646

$1F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,145 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $864/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,005
• Tax + insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-643/mo
• Annual: $-7,714/yr
• Cap rate: 2.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.37%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $53,686

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-643 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($864 rent vs $1).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#229 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Necedah Area School District (rural): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #306 of 342 in WI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Necedah Elementary (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #562 of 1,041 statewide, top 58%, 247 students, 70% FRL); Necedah Middle (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #319 of 383 statewide, top 85%, 134 students, 58% FRL); Necedah High (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #467 of 483 statewide, top 100%, 207 students, 51% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 287603.7% of price.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Juneau County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Juneau County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.