w4870 30th St · Germantown, WI 54646

$1

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,145 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 1997 40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Offered at online Auction. Highest bid at auction close is subject to Seller approval. Auction ends June 15, 2026 at 1:00 p. m. (soft close). Discover the perfect blend of country living and recreational opportunity with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on 40 +/- scenic acres. The property features a large detached garage and open-sided shed, offering ample space for equipment, toys, and storage. Located just minutes from Buckhorn State Park and Castle Rock Lake, this property is ideal for outdoor enthusiasts, hunters, or those seeking a peaceful getaway. Whether you?re looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this property will be off

Key facts

• Scenic acres
• Country living
• Open-sided shed

Tags

• COUNTRY LIVING
• RECREATIONAL OPPORTUNITY
• SCENIC ACRES
• DETACHED GARAGE
• OPEN-SIDED SHED
• MINUTES FROM CASTLE ROCK LAKE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage with opener; Additional garage(s)
• Utilities: Point well / sand point water
• Home design: Single-family home; One story
• Construction: Built (year source: owner)
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Deck; Storage building/outbuilding; Wooded lot; Property allows horses

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Main-level primary bedroom (13 x 14); Main-level bedroom (11 x 13); Main-level bedroom (10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bedroom with full bath and walk-through access; At least one tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (LP gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Cable/satellite available; Walk-through bedroom; Crawl space with outside entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

🔨 Auction listing. The $1 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $191,709 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-643 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($864 rent vs $1).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#229 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Necedah Area School District (rural): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #306 of 342 in WI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Necedah Elementary (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #562 of 1,041 statewide, top 58%, 247 students, 70% FRL); Necedah Middle (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #319 of 383 statewide, top 85%, 134 students, 58% FRL); Necedah High (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #467 of 483 statewide, top 100%, 207 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Juneau County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Juneau County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 287562.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.37%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 18.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,709
• List price: $1
• Delta: -100.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
W4719 29th St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+12%)	2mo	$159,000	$124	51
N9140 Snow Snake Trl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+12%)	12mo	$186,000	$145	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-71,983
• Equity at exit: $28,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -77.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.15×
• Total profit: $-115,333
• Equity at exit: $16,575

Cash invested: $53,678 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54646

• Home prices YoY: -12.6%
• Active inventory: 62

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,005
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$240 /mo · $2,876/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,677

Max offer price $98,716

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-510	-5% $-576	+0% $-643	+5% $-709	+10% $-775
Rent	-10% $-711	-5% $-677	+0% $-643	+5% $-609	+10% $-574
Rate	-1.0pp $-546	-0.5pp $-594	base $-643	+0.5pp $-692	+1.0pp $-743

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,927
• Closing costs: $5,751
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $1 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 20 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $1 Active 935-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,739
• − Property taxes: −$2,876
• − Insurance: −$959
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$829
• − Management: −$829
• − Depreciation: −$5,577
• Taxable loss: −$11,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,747
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Necedah Area School District
• NCES district ID: 5510230
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,109
• Composite: 22.7/100
• National rank: #8039
• State rank: #306 of 342 in WI

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #6122

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 20,046
• Population (ZIP): 3,752

Population outlook (Juneau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,013 people
• By 2030: 24,154 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 22,217 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 20,276 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 15,919 · -36.4%
• By 2100: 11,351 · -54.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Juneau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.1) · D 33.4% · R 65.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.0pp · 2024: -32.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.1 2020: R+29.2 2016: R+26.3 2012: D+7.1 2008: D+9.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.37%
• Current HPI: 295.2016
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,725 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.