5697 Westphalia Rd

Mattituck, NY 11952

$2,250,000D

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,450 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 248 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $16,292/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,799
• Tax + insurance: −$3,750
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,421
• Net cashflow: $-2,679/mo
• Annual: $-32,147/yr
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $630,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.25M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.86M (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.63M (27.6% below list).
• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.98M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.63M (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $16k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $68k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#461 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Mattituck — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.